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Measuring Racial Discrimination in Bail Decisions

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  • David Arnold
  • Will S. Dobbie
  • Peter Hull

Abstract

We develop new quasi-experimental tools to measure disparate impact, regardless of its source, in the context of bail decisions. We show that omitted variables bias in pretrial release rate comparisons can be purged by using the quasi-random assignment of judges to estimate average pretrial misconduct risk by race. We find that two-thirds of the release rate disparity between white and Black defendants in New York City is due to the disparate impact of release decisions. We then develop a hierarchical marginal treatment effect model to study the drivers of disparate impact, finding evidence of both racial bias and statistical discrimination.

Suggested Citation

  • David Arnold & Will S. Dobbie & Peter Hull, 2020. "Measuring Racial Discrimination in Bail Decisions," NBER Working Papers 26999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26999
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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