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Measuring Racial Discrimination in Bail Decisions

Author

Listed:
  • David Arnold
  • Will S. Dobbie
  • Peter Hull

Abstract

We develop new quasi-experimental tools to measure disparate impact, regardless of its source, in the context of bail decisions. We show that omitted variables bias in pretrial release rate comparisons can be purged by using the quasi-random assignment of judges to estimate average pretrial misconduct risk by race. We find that two-thirds of the release rate disparity between white and Black defendants in New York City is due to the disparate impact of release decisions. We then develop a hierarchical marginal treatment effect model to study the drivers of disparate impact, finding evidence of both racial bias and statistical discrimination.

Suggested Citation

  • David Arnold & Will S. Dobbie & Peter Hull, 2020. "Measuring Racial Discrimination in Bail Decisions," NBER Working Papers 26999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26999
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ivan A. Canay & Magne Mogstad & Jack Mountjoy, 2020. "On the Use of Outcome Tests for Detecting Bias in Decision Making," NBER Working Papers 27802, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ludovica Ciasullo & Martina Uccioli, 2024. "Judging disparities: Recidivism risk, image motives and in-group bias on Wisconsin criminal courts," Discussion Papers 2024-03, Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP).
    3. Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Peter Hull & Michal Koles'ar, 2021. "Contamination Bias in Linear Regressions," Papers 2106.05024, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    4. Rehbeck, John, 2023. "Revealed Bayesian expected utility with limited data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 81-95.
    5. Jens Ludwig & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2021. "Fragile Algorithms and Fallible Decision-Makers: Lessons from the Justice System," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 71-96, Fall.
    6. Maximilian Kasy, 2023. "Algorithmic bias and racial inequality: A critical review," Economics Series Working Papers 1015, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    7. Jason Abaluck & Leila Agha & David C. Chan Jr & Daniel Singer & Diana Zhu, 2020. "Fixing Misallocation with Guidelines: Awareness vs. Adherence," NBER Working Papers 27467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Rahul Deb & Ludovic Renou, 2022. "Which wage distributions are consistent with statistical discrimination?," Working Papers tecipa-736, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    9. David Arnold & Will Dobbie & Peter Hull, 2021. "Measuring Racial Discrimination in Algorithms," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 49-54, May.
    10. Nicolás Grau & Damián Vergara, "undated". "A Simple Test for Prejudice in Decision Processes: The Prediction-Based Outcome Test," Working Papers wp493, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    11. Bharti, Nitin Kumar & Roy, Sutanuka, 2023. "The early origins of judicial stringency in bail decisions: Evidence from early childhood exposure to Hindu-Muslim riots in India," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    12. Enzo Brox & Riccardo Di Francesco, 2024. "The Cost of Coming Out," Papers 2403.03649, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    13. Ashesh Rambachan, 2022. "Identifying Prediction Mistakes in Observational Data," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of Artificial Intelligence, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Eli Ben-Michael & D. James Greiner & Melody Huang & Kosuke Imai & Zhichao Jiang & Sooahn Shin, 2024. "Does AI help humans make better decisions? A methodological framework for experimental evaluation," Papers 2403.12108, arXiv.org.
    15. Patrick Kline & Christopher Walters, 2021. "Reasonable Doubt: Experimental Detection of Job‐Level Employment Discrimination," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 765-792, March.
    16. Benjamin Feigenberg & Conrad Miller, 2020. "Racial Disparities in Motor Vehicle Searches Cannot Be Justified by Efficiency," NBER Working Papers 27761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Joshua Grossman & Julian Nyarko & Sharad Goel, 2023. "Racial bias as a multi‐stage, multi‐actor problem: An analysis of pretrial detention," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(1), pages 86-133, March.
    18. Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Peter Hull & Michal Kolesár, 2021. "On Estimating Multiple Treatment Effects with Regression," Working Papers 2021-41, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    19. Claudia Williamson Kramer, 2023. "Individualism and racial tolerance," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 197(3), pages 347-370, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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