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Dynamic Factor Models of Consumption, Hours, and Income

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  • Joseph G. Altonji
  • Ana Paula Martins
  • Aloysius Siow

Abstract

This paper addresses two questions. First, what are the key factors that affect a consumer's lifetime budget constraint and how do they evolve over the lifecycle? Second, how do consumers respond to changes in these factors? We examine the permanent income hypothesis and the Keynesian consumption model using a dynamic factor model of consumption, hours, wages, unemployment, and income. We show that a quarterly dynamic factor model with restrictions on the lag structure nay be used with annual panel data to account for the fact that in many micro panel data sets the variables relevant to a study are measured at different time intervals and/or are aggregates for the calendar year. By using several income indicators we are able to extend the panel data studies of Hall and Mishkin and Bernanke to allow for measurement error. We are also able to study the response of income and consumption to some of the factors which determine them. In addition, we study a dynamic factor representation of a joint lifecycle model of consumption and labor supply. We provide estimates of the effect of wages, unemployment, and other income determinants on the marginal utility of income as well as estimates of the substitution effects of wage change on labor supply and consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph G. Altonji & Ana Paula Martins & Aloysius Siow, 1987. "Dynamic Factor Models of Consumption, Hours, and Income," NBER Working Papers 2155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2155
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    1. Altonji, Joseph G & Segal, Lewis M, 1996. "Small-Sample Bias in GMM Estimation of Covariance Structures," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 353-366, July.
    2. Orazio Attanasio & Margherita Borella, 2006. "Stochastic Components of Individual Consumption: A Time Series Analysis of Grouped Data," NBER Working Papers 12456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Richard Blundell & Luigi Pistaferri & Ian Preston, 2008. "Consumption Inequality and Partial Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1887-1921, December.
    4. Koray Aktas, 2021. "Characterizing Life-Cycle Dynamics of Annual Days of Work, Wages, and Cross-Covariances," Working Papers 465, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    5. Costas Meghir & Luigi Pistaferri, 2004. "Income Variance Dynamics and Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 1-32, January.
    6. Louis-Philippe Morin, 2010. "Estimating the Benefit of High School for College-Bound Students," Working Papers 1002E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    7. Joseph G. Altonji & Thomas A. Dunn, 1991. "Relationships Among the Family Incomes and Labor Market Outcomes of Relatives," NBER Working Papers 3724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Meghir, Costas & Pistaferri, Luigi, 2011. "Earnings, Consumption and Life Cycle Choices," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 9, pages 773-854, Elsevier.
    9. Blundell, Richard William & Pistaferri, Luigi & Preston, Ian, 2002. "Partial Insurance, Information, and Consumption Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 3666, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Morin, Louis-Philippe, 2010. "Estimating the BenefiÂ…t of High School for College-Bound Students," CLSSRN working papers clsrn_admin-2010-3, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 30 Jan 2010.
    11. Ivan Vidangos, 2009. "Fluctuations in individual labor income: a panel VAR analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Roberto González & Hector Sala, 2015. "The Frisch Elasticity in the Mercosur Countries: A Pseudo-Panel Approach," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 33(1), pages 107-131, January.
    13. Mork, Knut Anton & Smith, V. Kerry, 1987. "Testing The Life-Cycle Hypothesis On Panel Data Using Detailed Consumption Diaries And Income Based On Tax Records," Department of Economics and Business - Archive 259425, North Carolina State University, Department of Economics.
    14. repec:pit:wpaper:211 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Etheridge, Ben, 2015. "A test of the household income process using consumption and wealth data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 129-157.
    16. Faria, Joao Ricardo & Leon-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2005. "Real exchange rate and employment performance in an open economy," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 67-80, March.

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