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Temperature, Aggregate Risk, and Expected Returns

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  • Ravi Bansal
  • Marcelo Ochoa

Abstract

In this paper we show that temperature is an aggregate risk factor that adversely affects economic growth. Our argument is based on evidence from global capital markets which shows that the covariance between country equity returns and temperature (i.e., temperature betas) contains sharp information about the cross-country risk premium; countries closer to the Equator carry a positive temperature risk premium which decreases as one moves farther away from the Equator. The differences in temperature betas mirror exposures to aggregate growth rate risk, which we show is negatively impacted by temperature shocks. That is, portfolios with larger exposure to risk from aggregate growth also have larger temperature betas; hence, a larger risk premium. We further show that increases in global temperature have a negative impact on economic growth in countries closer to the Equator, while its impact is negligible in countries at high latitudes. Consistent with this evidence, we show that there is a parallel between a country's distance to the Equator and the economy's dependence on climate sensitive sectors; in countries closer to the Equator industries with a high exposure to temperature are more prevalent. We provide a Long-Run Risks based model that quantitatively accounts for cross-sectional differences in temperature betas, its link to expected returns, and the connection between aggregate growth and temperature risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ravi Bansal & Marcelo Ochoa, 2011. "Temperature, Aggregate Risk, and Expected Returns," NBER Working Papers 17575, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17575
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Letta & Pierluigi Montalbano & Richard S.J. Tol, 2017. "Temperature shocks, growth and poverty thresholds: evidence from rural Tanzania," Working Papers 13/17, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    2. Kent D. Daniel & Robert B. Litterman & Gernot Wagner, 2016. "Applying Asset Pricing Theory to Calibrate the Price of Climate Risk," NBER Working Papers 22795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Hjort, Ingrid, 2016. "Potential Climate Risks in Financial Markets: A Literature Overview," Memorandum 01/2016, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    4. Irina, NASALCIUC, 2016. "Economic Aspects Of Fossil Fuel Social Costs. Why Do We Subsidize And Mediate The Cliamte Change Process?," Contemporary Economy Journal, Constantin Brancoveanu University, vol. 1(4), pages 133-147.
    5. Armon Rezai & Frederick Van der Ploeg, 2016. "Intergenerational Inequality Aversion, Growth, and the Role of Damages: Occam's Rule for the Global Carbon Tax," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(2), pages 493-522.
    6. Christoph Hambel & Holger Kraft & Eduardo Schwartz, 2015. "Optimal Carbon Abatement in a Stochastic Equilibrium Model with Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 21044, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Donadelli, Michael & Grüning, Patrick & Jüppner, Marcus & Kizys, Renatas, 2017. "Global temperature, R&D expenditure, and growth," SAFE Working Paper Series 188, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    8. Hambel, Christoph & Kraft, Holger & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 2015. "Optimal carbon abatement in a stochastic equilibrium model with climate change," SAFE Working Paper Series 92, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    9. Ravi Bansal & Marcelo Ochoa, 2011. "Welfare Costs of Long-Run Temperature Shifts," NBER Working Papers 17574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Ravi Bansal & Dana Kiku & Marcelo Ochoa, 2016. "Price of Long-Run Temperature Shifts in Capital Markets," NBER Working Papers 22529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Robert S. Pindyck, 2013. "The Climate Policy Dilemma," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 7(2), pages 219-237, July.
    12. Mihai Mutascu, 2014. "Influence of climate conditions on tax revenues," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 8(3), September.
    13. Robert S. Pindyck, 2012. "Risk and Return in Environmental Economics," NBER Working Papers 18262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Howard, Peter H. & Derek, Sylvan, 2016. "The Wisdom of the Economic Crowd: Calibrating Integrated Assessment Models Using Consensus," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 235639, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Marcelo Ochoa & Dana Kiku & Ravi Bansal, 2016. "What Do Capital Markets Tell Us About Climate Change?," 2016 Meeting Papers 542, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Rick Van der Ploeg & Armon Rezai, 2015. "Intergenerational Inequality Aversion, Growth and the Role of Damages: Occam's rule for the global tax," Economics Series Working Papers OxCarre Research Paper 15, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    17. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2013. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," NBER Working Papers 19578, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Rob Aalbers, 2013. "Optimal Discount Rates for Investments in Mitigation and Adaptation," CPB Discussion Paper 257, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General

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