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Sterling and the External Balance

  • Rudiger Dornbusch
  • Stanley Fischer

This paper analyzes the behavior of the current account and the exchange rate in the British economy during the 1970's, and discusses the outlook, as influenced by the availability of oil revenues, for exchange rate developments during the 1980's.Both trade and exchange rate behavior are affected by, and in turn affect, general macroeconomic developments and policy problems. In the short term, the major macroeconomic problems of the British economy are its high rates of inflation and unemployment. Over the long term, the underlying problem for the British economy is its slow productivity growth relative to the major OECD economies (except that of the United States).Two major themes permeate this paper. First, the accepted laws of economics continue to work in the United Kingdom; for example, low domestic demand and increased British competitiveness improve the balance of payments and slow the fall of the exchange rate. Second, Britain's achievement of macroeconomic goals depends upon the behavior of both nominal and real wages. The inflation rate will remain low only if the rate of change of nominal wages does; full employment with stable prices and current account balance will be achieved only if real wage growth is restrained or productivity growth increases.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0327.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0327.

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Date of creation: Mar 1979
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Publication status: published as Dornbusch, Rudiger and Fischer, Stanley. "Sterling and the External Balance ." Britain's Economic Prospects Revisited, edited by Richard Caves and Lawrence Krause. Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1980.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0327
Note: ITI IFM
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  1. Laidler, David E W, 1976. "Inflation in Britain: A Monetarist Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 485-500, September.
  2. Humphrey, David H, 1976. "Disaggregated Import Functions for the UK, West Germany and France," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 38(4), pages 281-98, November.
  3. Cripps, T Francis & Godley, Wynne A H, 1976. "A Formal Analysis of the Cambridge Economic Policy Group Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 43(172), pages 335-48, November.
  4. Posner, Michael V., 1978. "Problems of the British economy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 5-32, January.
  5. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-25, May.
  6. Ball, R J & Burns, T, 1976. "The Inflationary Mechanism in the U.K. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 467-84, September.
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