IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/0178.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Investors' Portfolio Behavior Under Alternative Models of Long-Term Interest Rate Expectations: Unitary, Rational, or Autoregressive

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin M. Friedman
  • V. Vance Roley

Abstract

This paper develops behavioral relationships explaining investors' demands for long-term bonds, using three alternative hypotheses about investors' expectations of future bond prices (yields). The results, based on U.S. 'data for six major categories of bond market investors, consistently support an autoregressive expectations model. The results also have implications for further aspects of investors' portfolio behavior, including expectations formation, response to inflation, and speed of adjustment.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin M. Friedman & V. Vance Roley, 1980. "Investors' Portfolio Behavior Under Alternative Models of Long-Term Interest Rate Expectations: Unitary, Rational, or Autoregressive," NBER Working Papers 0178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0178
    Note: ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0178.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brundy, James M & Jorgenson, Dale W, 1971. "Efficient Estimation of Simultaneous Equations by Instrumental Variables," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(3), pages 207-224, August.
    2. William C. Brainard & James Tobin, 1968. "Pitfalls in Financial Model-Building," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 244, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. V. Vance Roley, 1980. "Symmetry Restrictions in a System of Financial Asset Demands: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 0593, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Benjamin M. Friedman & V. Vance Roley, 1981. "Structural Models of Interest Rate Determination and Portfolio Behavior in the Corporate and Government Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 0205, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1978. "Who Puts the Inflation Premium Into Nominal Interests Rates?," NBER Working Papers 0231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. V. Vance Roley, 1983. "Asset Substitutability and the Impact of Federal Deficits," NBER Working Papers 1082, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Friedman, Benjamin Morton, 1977. "Financial Flow Variables and the Short-Run Determination of Long-Term Interest Rates," Scholarly Articles 4554309, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    6. V. Vance Roley, 1980. "The Effect of Federal Debt Management Policy on Corporate Bond and Equity Yields," NBER Working Papers 0586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1978. "Price Inflation, Portfolio Choice, and Nominal Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 0235, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Thomas I. Palley, 2008. "Endogenous Money: Implications for the Money Supply Process, Interest Rates, and Macroeconomics," Working Papers wp178, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    9. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
    10. Emmanuel Uniamikogbo & Emma I. Okoye & Arowoshegbe O. Amos, 2021. "Income Diversification and Financial Performance of Selected Deposit Money Banks in Nigeria," International Journal of Applied Management Sciences and Engineering (IJAMSE), IGI Global, vol. 8(1), pages 89-105, January.
    11. Canelli, Rosa & Fontana, Giuseppe & Realfonzo, Riccardo & Passarella, Marco Veronese, 2024. "Energy crisis, economic growth and public finance in Italy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    12. Mohsen Afsharian & Anna Kryvko & Peter Reichling, 2011. "Efficiency and Its Impact on the Performance of European Commercial Banks," FEMM Working Papers 110018, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    13. Amal Aouadi & Sylvain Marsat, 2018. "Do ESG Controversies Matter for Firm Value? Evidence from International Data," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 151(4), pages 1027-1047, September.
    14. Caballero, Ricardo J., 1999. "Aggregate investment," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 813-862, Elsevier.
    15. Elinder, Mikael & Persson, Lovisa, 2017. "House price responses to a national property tax reform," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 18-39.
    16. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Taking stock: monetary policy transmission to equity markets," Working Paper Series 354, European Central Bank.
    17. Samuel, Cherian, 1996. "The investment decision : a re-examination of competing theories using panel data," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1656, The World Bank.
    18. Geweke, J. & Joel Horowitz & Pesaran, M.H., 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0655, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    19. Alarudeen Aminu Isiaka Akande Raifu, 2019. "Firm Financial Status and Investment Behaviour: Evidence from Manufacturing Firms in Nigeria," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 22(1), pages 73-92, May.
    20. Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2005. "Investment and Uncertainty in the G7," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(1), pages 1-32, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0178. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.