Fiscal multipliers and factors of growth in Poland and the Czech Republic in 2009
First, the concept of public expenditure multiplier is redefined to allow for import intensity of exports, and its value is estimated for Poland and the Czech Republic in 2008–2009. Next, on the basis of effective demand model of economic dynamics, there follows a comparative analysis of GDP dynamics in the two countries in 2008-09 and of the factors that in 2009 made the rate of GDP growth positive in Poland and negative in Czech Republic. In 2009 both countries experienced the rate of exchange depreciation which, however, was significantly greater in Poland, as was the rise of rate of private savings, which negatively affects the GDP growth rate. On the other hand, fiscal expansion was slightly greater in Czech Republic than in Poland. What factors then helped to avoid the GDP growth to decline in 2009 in Poland but not in the Czech Republic? The key difference in the GDP generation was that in the latter country net exports were too small to offset the rate of growth of private savings, while in Poland improvement in the trade balance, heavily negative in earlier years, together with strong fiscal expansion outbalanced the effect of much greater than in the Czech Republic rise in the rate of private savings. The derived results are strongly sensitive to variations in such parameters of our model as sectoral import intensities and private propensity to save, which may well change with changes in growth of GDP and its components. This does not undermine theoretical foundations of our analysis, yet it limits validity of any conclusions with respect to hypothetical future impact of fiscal expansion or fiscal contraction. Nevertheless, it appears that maintaining a positive rate of GDP growth may require that the rate of private savings no longer continues to rise (i.e. that the average private propensity to consume no longer falls) at least until the dynamics of private investment and/or exports do not recover.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 00-919 Warszawa ul. Świętokrzyska 11/21|
Phone: (0-22) 653 10 00
Fax: (0-22) 620 85 18
Web page: http://www.nbp.pl/Homen.aspx?f=/en/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/informacja_en.html
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Thomas I. Palley, 2009. "Imports and the income-expenditure model: implications for fiscal policy and recession fighting," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 32(2), pages 311-322, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:117. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zbigniew Polański)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.