The Hessian Method (Highly Efficient State Smoothing, In a Nutshell)
I introduce the HESSIAN method for semi-Gaussian state space models with univariate states. The vector of states a=(a^1, ... , a^n) is Gaussian and the observed vector y= (y^1 , ... , y^n )> need not be. I describe a close approximation g(a) to the density f(a|y). It is easy and fast to evaluate g(a) and draw from the approximate distribution. In particular, no simulation is required to approximate normalization constants. Applications include likelihood approximation using importance sampling and posterior simulation using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). HESSIAN is an acronym but it also refers to the Hessian of log f(a|y), which gures prominently in the derivation. I compute my approximation for a basic stochastic volatility model and compare it with the multivariate Gaussian approximation described in Durbin and Koopman (1997) and Shephard and Pitt (1997). For a wide range of plausible parameter values, I estimate the variance of log f(a|y) - log g(a) with respect to the approximate density g(a). For my approximation, this variance ranges from 330 to 39000 times smaller.
|Date of creation:||2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (514) 343-6557
Fax: (514) 343-7221
Web page: http://www.cireq.umontreal.ca
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard, 1994.
"Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models,"
3., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Kim, Sangjoon & Shephard, Neil & Chib, Siddhartha, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 361-93, July.
- Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1996. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference And Comparison With Arch Models," Econometrics 9610002, EconWPA.
- Sangjoon Kim, Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, . "Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models," Economics Papers W26, revised version of W, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Liesenfeld, Roman & Richard, Jean-Francois, 2003. "Univariate and multivariate stochastic volatility models: estimation and diagnostics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 505-531, September.
- William J. McCausland & Shirley Miller & Denis Pelletier, 2007.
"A New Approach to Drawing States in State Space Models,"
Working Paper Series
014, North Carolina State University, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2007.
- McCAUSLAND, William J. & MILLER, Shirley & PELLETIER, Denis, 2007. "A New Approach to Drawing States in State Space Models," Cahiers de recherche 2007-06, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- McCAUSLAND, William J. & MILLER, Shirley & PELLETIER, Denis, 2007. "A New Approach to Drawing States in State Space Models," Cahiers de recherche 07-2007, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Geweke, John, 1989. "Bayesian Inference in Econometric Models Using Monte Carlo Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1317-39, November.
- Jean-Francois Richard, 2007.
"Efficient High-Dimensional Importance Sampling,"
321, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2007.
- Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 2002.
"Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 69-87, January.
- H�vard Rue & Ingelin Steinsland & Sveinung Erland, 2004. "Approximating hidden Gaussian Markov random fields," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(4), pages 877-892.
- J. Durbin, 2002. "A simple and efficient simulation smoother for state space time series analysis," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(3), pages 603-616, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mtl:montec:03-2008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sharon BREWER)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.