From Amazon to Apple: Modeling Online Retail Sales, Purchase Incidence and Visit Behavior
In this study we construct a multivariate stochastic model for website visit duration, page views, purchase incidence and the sale amount for online retailers. The model is constructed by composition from parametric distributions that account for consumer heterogeneity, and involves copula components. Our model is readily estimated using full maximum likelihood, allows for the strong nonlinear relationships between the sales and visit variables to be explored in detail, and can be used to construct sales predictions. We examine a number of top-ranked U.S. online retailers, and find that the visit duration and the number of pages viewed are both related to sales, but in very different ways for different products. Using Bayesian methodology we show how the model can be extended to account for latent household segments, further accounting for consumer heterogeneity. The model can also be adjusted to accommodate a more accurate analysis of online retailers like apple.com that sell products at a very limited number of price points. In a validation study across a range of different websites, we find that the purchase incidence and sales amount are both forecast more accurately using our stochastic model, when compared to regression, probit regression and a popular data-mining method.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: PO Box 11E, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia|
Phone: +61 3 99052489
Fax: +61 3 99055474
Web page: http://business.monash.edu/econometrics-and-business-statistics
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://business.monash.edu/econometrics-and-business-statistics Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Zhang, Xibin & Brooks, Robert D. & King, Maxwell L., 2009.
"A Bayesian approach to bandwidth selection for multivariate kernel regression with an application to state-price density estimation,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 153(1), pages 21-32, November.
- Xibin Zhang & Robert D. Brooks & Maxwell L. King, 2007. "A Bayesian approach to bandwidth selection for multivariate kernel regression with an application to state-price density estimation," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Zhang, Xibin & King, Maxwell L. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "A Bayesian approach to bandwidth selection for multivariate kernel density estimation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(11), pages 3009-3031, July.
- Francis Vella, 1998. "Estimating Models with Sample Selection Bias: A Survey," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(1), pages 127-169.
- van Hasselt, Martijn, 2011. "Bayesian inference in a sample selection model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 165(2), pages 221-232.
- Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2005. "Microeconometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521848053, December.
- Murray D. Smith, 2003. "Modelling sample selection using Archimedean copulas," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 99-123, 06.
- Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 361-393.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2013-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dr Xibin Zhang)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.