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Reacting to the Lucas Critique: The Keynesians' Pragmatic Replies

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Abstract

We illustrate how the Lucas Critique was called into question by Keynesian macroeconomists during the 1970s and 1980s. Our claim is that Keynesians' reactions were carried out from a pragmatic approach, which addressed the empirical and practical relevance of the Critique. Keynesians rejected the Critique as a general principle with no relevance for concrete macroeconometric practice; their rejection relied on econometric investigations and contextual analysis of the U.S. 1970s stagflation and its aftermath. Keynesians argued that the parameters of their models remained stable across this period, and that simpler ways to account for stagflation (such as the introduction of supply shocks into their models) provided better alternatives to improve policy evaluation

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  • Aurélien Goutsmedt & Erich Pinzon-Fuchs & Matthieu Renault & Francesco Sergi, 2017. "Reacting to the Lucas Critique: The Keynesians' Pragmatic Replies," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17042, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  • Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:17042
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    1. Bennett T. McCallum, 1984. "Credibility and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 105-135.
    2. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-115, March.
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    4. Taylor, John B, 1984. "Recent Changes in Macro Policy and Its Effects: Some Time-Series Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 206-210, May.
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    6. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "The Observational Equivalence of Natural and Unnatural Rate Theories of Macroeconomics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 631-640, June.
    7. Tobin, James, 1981. "The Monetarist Counter-Revolution Today-An Appraisal," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(361), pages 29-42, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Goulven Rubin, 2018. "Robert J. Gordon and the introduction of the natural rate hypothesis in the Keynesian framework," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 18013, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    History of macroeconomics; Lucas Critique; Keynesian macroeconometrics; Stagflation;

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian

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