The Phillips Curve from the Perspective of the History of Econometrics
This essay examines the history of econometrics through a case study of the Phillips curve, that is, econometric modeling of the trade-off between inflation and unemployment. It focuses on a number of questions: What econometric tools did modelers choose to use in modeling the Phillips curve? How did their choices shape the ways that they obtained, interpreted, and theorized the empirical evidence? How did the concerns and problems they encountered feed back into the development of econometrics? This study reveals that much of the interaction between econometrics and economics involved modelers making certain trade-offs between theory and data, and their different positions generated disputes, factions, and confusion. It also reveals that the history of econometric modeling of the Phillips curve mirrors the evolving process of how the Cowles structural modeling paradigm has become consolidated, challenged, reformed, or abandoned.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 43 (2011)
Issue (Month): 5 (Supplement)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Duke University Press 905 W. Main Street, Suite 18B Durham, NC 27701|
Phone: (919) 660-1800
Fax: (919) 684-8974
Web page: http://www.dukeupress.edu/Catalog/ViewProduct.php?viewby=journal&productid=45614
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hop:hopeec:v:43:y:2011:i:5:p:283-308. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Center for the History of Political Economy Webmaster)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.