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The causes of inflation

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  • Frederic S. Mishkin

Abstract

This paper attempts to provide a perspective on the causes of inflation by exploring why sustained inflations occur and the role of monetary policy in the inflation process. The conclusion reached in this paper is that in the last ten years there has been a convergence of views in the economics profession on the causes of inflation. As long as inflation is appropriately defined to be a sustained inflation, macro-economic analysis, whether of the monetarist or Keynesian persuasion, leads to agreement with Milton Friedman's famous dictum, "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." However, the conclusion that inflation is a monetary phenomenon does not settle the issue of what causes inflation because we also need to understand why inflationary monetary policy occurs. This paper also examines this issue and it finds that the underlying cause of inflationin the United States has been accommodating monetary policy geared to achieving a high employment target. The role of expectations has been important in the inflationary process so that to prevent the resurgence of inflation at a minimum cost in terms of unemployment and output loss, monetary policy must be both non-accommodating and credible.
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Suggested Citation

  • Frederic S. Mishkin, 1984. "The causes of inflation," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-32.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkpr:y:1984:p:1-32
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    Cited by:

    1. Mirza, Nawazish & Naqvi, Bushra & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "Fiscal or monetary? Efficacy of regulatory regimes and energy trilemma of the inflation reduction act (IRA)," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    2. Tarkom, Augustine & Ujah, Nacasius U., 2023. "Inflation, interest rate, and firm efficiency: The impact of policy uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Amr Hosny, 2013. "Inflation in Egypt: Internal or External Driven?," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 1350019-131, January.
    4. Sergey Narkevich & Pavel Trunin, 2012. "Reserve Currencies: Factors of Evolution and their Role in the World Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 162P.
    5. Ooft, Gavin, 2018. "Modelling and Forecasting Inflation for the Economy of Suriname," EconStor Preprints 215534, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    6. Sánchez García, Javier & Galdeano Gómez, Emilio & Cruz Rambaud, Salvador, 2024. "Drivers of inflationary shocks and spillovers between Europe and the United States," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    7. Atilla Gökçe & Umut Ãakmak, 2016. "Long-Term Relationship between Inflation and Public Sector Deficit in the Turkish Economy and its Macroeconomic Implications (1975-2014)," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 8(4), pages 109-122.
    8. Gavin Ooft, 2020. "Forecasting Monthly Inflation: An Application To Suriname," Studies in Applied Economics 144, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.

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