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The Riskiness of Risk Models

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Abstract

We provide an economic valuation of the riskiness of risk models by directly measuring the impact of model risks (specification and estimation risks) on VaR estimates. We find that integrating the model risk into the VaR computations implies a substantial minimum correction of the order of 10-40% of VaR levels. We also present results of a practical method Ñ based on a backtesting framework Ñ for incorporating the model risk into the VaR estimates

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  • Christophe Boucher & Bertrand Maillet, 2011. "The Riskiness of Risk Models," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 11020, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    • Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:11020
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    1. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Cacho-Diaz, Julio & Laeven, Roger J.A., 2015. "Modeling financial contagion using mutually exciting jump processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 585-606.
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    1. Christophe Boucher & Gregory Jannin & Patrick Kouontchou & Bertrand Maillet, 2013. "An Economic Evaluation of Model Risk in Long-term Asset Allocations," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 475-491, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Model risk; quantile estimation; VaR; Basel II validation test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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