Sovereign Default, Foreign Exchange-in-Advance Constraints, and Endogenous Default Costs

I build a sovereign default model in which importing economies must cover intermediate imports using accumulated foreign exchange (reserves). This occasionally-binding constraint: explains why imports and production fall during defaults; complements models with simultaneous holdings of debt and reserves; generates endogenous default costs that increase with output; and motivates defaults for reserve conservation. The model is less reliant on ad-hoc default costs prevalent in prior quantitative sovereign default models seeking to match the data. Simulations from the model reveal average output losses in default that are greater than 10%, and a 17% fall in imports and a large reserve-to-gdp ratio.