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Fiscal Policy and the Term Premium in Real Interest Rate Differentials

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  • Thomas J. Flavin

    () (Economics, National University of Ireland, Maynooth)

  • Michele G. Limosani

    (Universita di Messina, Italy.)

Abstract

This paper seeks to identify the source of the risk premium in real interest rate differentials across European countries. In particular, we examine the link between real interest rate differentials, existing between various European countries and Germany, and domestic fiscal policy as proxied by the Debt/GDP ratios in these countries. Our results provide strong evidence that this variable exerts a significant influence on the determination of both the level and the volatility of the differential for both long term and short term interest rates. This is a noteworthy result bearing in mind the Maastricht criteria for European Monetary Union and the importance attached to convergence of Debt/GDP ratios.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas J. Flavin & Michele G. Limosani, 1998. "Fiscal Policy and the Term Premium in Real Interest Rate Differentials," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n830498, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  • Handle: RePEc:may:mayecw:n830498
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew Clare & Raymond O'Brien & Stephen Thomas & Michael Wickens, "undated". "Macroeconomic Shocks and the Domestic CAPM: Evidence from the UK Stock Market," Discussion Papers 94/10, Department of Economics, University of York.
    2. Thoms, S. H., 1993. "An international CAPM for bonds and equities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 390-412, August.
    3. J. Tobin, 1958. "Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 65-86.
    4. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & MacArthur, Alan T., 1988. "Political vs. currency premia in international real interest differentials : A study of forward rates for 24 countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1083-1114, June.
    5. Engel, Charles & Rodrigues, Anthony P, 1989. "Tests of International CAPM with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 119-138, April-Jun.
    6. Tobin, James, 1982. "Money and Finance in the Macroeconomic Process," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 171-204, May.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    8. Engel, Charles M & Rodrigues, Anthony P, 1993. "Tests of Mean-Variance Efficiency of International Equity Markets," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 403-421, July.
    9. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas J. Flavin & Michele G. Limosani, 2000. "Explaining European Short-term Interest Rate Differentials: An Application of Tobin's Portfolio Theory," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1000500, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    2. Marc Hayford, 2005. "Fiscal policy and national saving," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 981-992.
    3. Flavin, Thomas J. & Limosani, Michele G., 2007. "Fiscal, monetary policy and the conditional risk premium in short-term interest rate differentials: an application of Tobin's portfolio theory," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 101-112.

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