Reducing the Excess Variability of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter by Flexible Penalization
The Hodrick-Prescott filter is the probably most popular tool for trend estimation in economics. Compared to other frequently used methods like the Baxter-King filter it allows to estimate the trend for the most recent periods of a time series. However, the Hodrick- Prescott filter suffers from an increasing excess variability at the margins of the series inducing a too flexible trend function at the margins compared to the middle. This paper will tackle this problem using spectral analysis and a flexible penalization. It will show that the excess variability can be reduced immensely by a flexible penalization, while the gain function for the middle of the time series is used as a measure to determine the degree of the flexible penalization.
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"Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series,"
NBER Working Papers
5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Stamfort, Stefan, 2005. "Berechnung trendbereinigter Indikatoren für Deutschland mit Hilfe von Filterverfahren," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,19, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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