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A Note Concerning Government Bond Yields

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  • Tanweer Akram

Abstract

This paper relates Keynes's discussions of money, the state theory of money, financial markets, investors' expectations, uncertainty, and liquidity preference to the dynamics of government bond yields for countries with monetary sovereignty. Keynes argued that the central bank can influence the long-term interest rate on government bonds and the shape of the yield curve mainly through the short-term interest rate. Investors psychology, herding behavior in financial markets, and uncertainty about the future reinforce the effects of the short-term interest rate and the central bank's monetary policy actions on the long-term interest rate. Several recent empirical studies that examine the dynamics of government bond yields substantiate the Keynesian perspective that the long-term interest rate responds markedly to the short-term interest rate. These empirical studies not only vindicate the Keynesian perspective but also have relevance for macroeconomic theory and policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Tanweer Akram, 2020. "A Note Concerning Government Bond Yields," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_977, Levy Economics Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_977
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles Yuji Horioka & Takaaki Nomoto & Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, 2013. "Why has Japan’s Massive Government Debt Not Wreaked Havoc (Yet)?," UP School of Economics Discussion Papers 201310, University of the Philippines School of Economics.
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    7. Scott T. Fullwiler, 2016. "The Debt Ratio and Sustainable Macroeconomic Policy," World Economic Review, World Economics Association, vol. 2016(7), pages 12-42, July.
    8. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2014. "Understanding the Low Yields of the Long-Term Japanese Sovereign Debt," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 331-340.
    9. George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
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    11. Richard J. Cebula, 2014. "An empirical investigation into the impact of US federal government budget deficits on the real interest rate yield on intermediate-term treasury issues, 1972-2012," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(28), pages 3483-3493, October.
    12. Takeo Hoshi & Takatoshi Ito, 2013. "Is the Sky the Limit? Can Japanese Government Bonds Continue to Defy Gravity?," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 218-247, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hubert Gabrisch, 2021. "GARCH Analyses of Risk and Uncertainty in the Theories of the Interest Rate of Keynes and Kalecki," wiiw Working Papers 191, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    2. Tanweer Akram, 2021. "A Keynesian Approach to Modeling the Long-Term Interest Rate," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_988, Levy Economics Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money; State Theory of Money; Chartalism; Monetary Theory; Central Bank; Government Bond Yields; Interest Rate; John Maynard Keynes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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