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Estimating Nonlinear Intergenerational Mobility in China with an Analysis of Influencing Factors

Author

Listed:
  • Zongwu Cai

    (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA)

  • Weitong Wang

    (School of Economics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian, Liaoning 116025, China)

  • Jing Yuan

    (School of Statistics, Shandong Technology and Business University, Yantai, Shandong 264005, China)

Abstract

This paper integrates income inequality and intergenerational mobility (IGM) under a unified framework, providing a theoretical basis for the nonlinear measurement of IGM. Also, it proposes using a nonparametric quantile regression gradient boosting tree model to estimate the China's nonlinear IGM elasticity and to study the interactive effects of macro-micro determinants. The empirical results show that using the nonlinear IGM elasticity, IGM should be significantly enhanced, with the maximum increase reaching 12.92%. Furthermore, the fitting of the nonlinear quantile regression gradient boosting tree model is superior to that of the linear quantile regression model. The nonlinear characteristics are particularly significant for the population with an annual income between 30,000 yuan and 150,000 yuan. China's intergenerational income elasticity lies between 0.1861 and 0.7026, and parental income evidently affects offspring income with a "strong two-tailed and weak middle" pattern. Moreover, there are income and regional heterogeneities in the characteristics of IGM, and there are significant differences in the income transmission process and the degree of nonlinearity among different regions. Finally, this paper explores IGM traits of income spectrum extreme groups and the "poverty trap" in China. The results show that the most important influencing factors for achieving income class crossing are economic growth, industrial optimization, intergenerational educational mobility, and wealth capital investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Zongwu Cai & Weitong Wang & Jing Yuan, 2025. "Estimating Nonlinear Intergenerational Mobility in China with an Analysis of Influencing Factors," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202602, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2026.
    • Handle: RePEc:kan:wpaper:20201
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being

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