A Theory of Bayesian Decision Making
This paper presents a complete, choice-based, axiomatic Bayesian decision theory. It introduces a new choice set consisting of information-contingent plans for choosing actions and bets and subjective expected utility model with effect-dependent utility functions and action-dependent subjective probabilities which, in conjunction with the updating of the probabilities using Bayes' rule, gives rise to a unique prior and a set of action-dependent posterior probabilities representing the decision maker's prior and posterior beliefs.
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- Edi Karni, 2008. "On Optimal Insurance in the Presence of Moral Hazard*," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 33(1), pages 1-18, June.
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- Mark J. Machina & David Schmeidler, 1990. "A More Robust Definition of Subjective Probability," Discussion Paper Serie A 306, University of Bonn, Germany.
- Machina Mark J. & Schmeidler David, 1995.
"Bayes without Bernoulli: Simple Conditions for Probabilistically Sophisticated Choice,"
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Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 106-128, October.
- Mark J. Machina & David Schmeidler, 1994. "Bayes Without Bernoulli: Simple Conditions for Probabilistically Sophisticated Choice," Discussion Papers 1088, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Karni, E. & Schmeidler, D., 1991.
"On the Uniqueness of Subjective Probabilities,"
1-92, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
- Karni, Edi, 2006.
"Subjective expected utility theory without states of the world,"
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- Edi Karni, 2005. "Subjective Expected Utility Theory without States of the World," Economics Working Paper Archive 523, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Wakker, Peter, 1987. "Subjective probabilities for state dependent continuous utility," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 289-298, December.
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