A Theory of Bayesian Decision Making
This paper presents a complete, choice-based, axiomatic Bayesian decision theory. It introduces a new choice set consisting of information-contingent plans for choosing actions and bets and subjective expected utility model with effect-dependent utility functions and action-dependent subjective probabilities which, in conjunction with the updating of the probabilities using Bayes’ rule, gives rise to a unique prior and a set of action-dependent posterior probabilities representing the decision maker’s prior and posterior beliefs.
|Date of creation:||2009|
|Date of revision:||May 2009|
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- Machina,Mark & Schmeidler,David, 1991.
"A more robust definition of subjective probability,"
Discussion Paper Serie A
365, University of Bonn, Germany.
- Machina, Mark J & Schmeidler, David, 1992. "A More Robust Definition of Subjective Probability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 745-80, July.
- Mark J. Machina & David Schmeidler, 1990. "A More Robust Definition of Subjective Probability," Discussion Paper Serie A 306, University of Bonn, Germany.
- Edi Karni, 2008. "On Optimal Insurance in the Presence of Moral Hazard*," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 33(1), pages 1-18, June.
- Hill, Brian, 2010.
"An additively separable representation in the Savage framework,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 145(5), pages 2044-2054, September.
- Brian, HILL, 2007. "An additively separable representation in the Savage framework," Les Cahiers de Recherche 882, HEC Paris.
- Edi Karni, 2005.
"Subjective Expected Utility Theory without States of the World,"
Economics Working Paper Archive
523, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Karni, Edi, 2006. "Subjective expected utility theory without states of the world," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 325-342, June.
- Mark J. Machina & David Schmeidler, 1994.
"Bayes Without Bernoulli: Simple Conditions for Probabilistically Sophisticated Choice,"
1088, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Machina Mark J. & Schmeidler David, 1995. "Bayes without Bernoulli: Simple Conditions for Probabilistically Sophisticated Choice," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 106-128, October.
- Karni, E. & Schmeidler, D., 1991.
"On the Uniqueness of Subjective Probabilities,"
1-92, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
- Karni, Edi, 1996. "Probabilities and Beliefs," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 249-62, November.
- Nau, Robert F, 1995. "Coherent Decision Analysis with Inseparable Probabilities and Utilities," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 71-91, January.
- Wakker, Peter, 1987. "Subjective probabilities for state dependent continuous utility," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 289-298, December.
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