IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/jau/wpaper/2019-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Real exchange rates and competitiveness in Central and Eastern Europe: have they fundamentally changed?

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Carlos Cuestas

    () (Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)

  • Mercedes Monfort

    () (Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)

  • Javier Ordoñez

    () (Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)

Abstract

In this paper we analyse the evolution of the RER and its main fundamentals for a group of Central and Eastern European countries. We focus particularly on the possibility of structural breaks in the relationship. We find clear evidence of breaks, mainly caused by the great recession. We find that a combination of both supply-side and demand-side effects are behind the variations in the real exchange rate, and overall, capital inflows have contributed to improve competitiveness in these countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Cuestas & Mercedes Monfort & Javier Ordoñez, 2019. "Real exchange rates and competitiveness in Central and Eastern Europe: have they fundamentally changed?," Working Papers 2019/12, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
  • Handle: RePEc:jau:wpaper:2019/12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.doctreballeco.uji.es/wpficheros/Cuestas_et_al_12_2019.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Berg & Yanliang Miao, 2010. "The Real Exchange Rate and Growth Revisited; The Washington Consensus Strikes Back?," IMF Working Papers 10/58, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Sims, Christopher A., 1988. "Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 463-474.
    3. Hubert Gabrisch & Karsten Staehr, 2015. "The Euro Plus Pact: Competitiveness and External Capital Flows in the EU Countries," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 558-576, May.
    4. Christidou, Maria & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2010. "Purchasing Power Parity and the European single currency: Some new evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1116-1123, September.
    5. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2017. "Dutch disease, real effective exchange rate misalignments and their effect on GDP growth in EU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 350-370.
    6. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Regis, Paulo José, 2013. "Purchasing power parity in OECD countries: Nonlinear unit root tests revisited," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 343-346.
    7. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2004. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 841-857, November.
    8. Gianluca Benigno & Christoph Thoenissen, 2003. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Supply-Side Performance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages 103-124, March.
    9. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    10. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    11. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2009. "Purchasing power parity in Central and Eastern European countries: an analysis of unit roots and nonlinearities," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 87-94.
    12. Simeon Coleman, 2008. "Estimating Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in the Franc Zone," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 17(4), pages 600-634, August.
    13. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Estefania Mourelle & Paulo José Regis, 2019. "Real exchange rate misalignments in CEECs: have they hindered growth?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2018-05, Bank of Estonia, revised 23 Jan 2019.
    14. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real exchange rates; Central and Eastern Europe; structural breaks; European integration.;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jau:wpaper:2019/12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (María Aurora Garcia Gallego). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ueujies.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.