IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp18024.html

The Effect of the End of Hiring Incentives on Job and Employment Security

Author

Listed:
  • Ardito, Chiara

    (University of Turin)

  • Berton, Fabio

    (European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC))

  • Pacelli, Lia

    (University of Turin)

  • Zanatta, Marina

    (University of Torino)

Abstract

We analyse the long-term impact of hiring subsidies on both job and employment security. The subsidy that we examine was introduced in Italy through the 2015 Budget Law, with the goal of promoting open-ended contracts. We employ a non-linear difference-in-differences (NL-DiD) approach within a duration framework, using high-frequency, population-wide linked employer-employee administrative data from a large Italian region. Causal results on job security indicate that the subsidy’s protective effect is short-lived. Excess separations from subsidised jobs peak in the exact same month in which the monetary incentive expires. No long-term protective effect of the subsidy is observed regarding employment security. These results hold across a wide range of worker and firm characteristics, showing surprisingly little heterogeneity. One notable exception concerns firm size. Furthermore, the expiration of subsidies disproportionately affects workers with low human capital. Our findings suggest that hiring subsidies are not effective in promoting either job or employment security for beneficiaries and that this raises questions about the efficacy of this common and costly policy, particularly when offered unconditionally.

Suggested Citation

  • Ardito, Chiara & Berton, Fabio & Pacelli, Lia & Zanatta, Marina, 2025. "The Effect of the End of Hiring Incentives on Job and Employment Security," IZA Discussion Papers 18024, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18024
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp18024.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huber, Martin & Lechner, Michael & Wunsch, Conny, 2013. "The performance of estimators based on the propensity score," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(1), pages 1-21.
    2. Marco Caliendo & Sabine Kopeinig, 2008. "Some Practical Guidance For The Implementation Of Propensity Score Matching," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 31-72, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michele Cantarella & Maria Cristina Maurizio & Francesco Serti, 2025. "The temporary impact of permanent employment incentives: Evidence from Italy," Papers 2509.10193, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marco Caliendo & Stefan Tübbicke, 2020. "New evidence on long-term effects of start-up subsidies: matching estimates and their robustness," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1605-1631, October.
    2. Schmidl, Ricarda, 2015. "The Effectiveness of Early Vacancy Information in the Presence of Monitoring and ALMP," IZA Discussion Papers 9575, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Jawid, Asadullah & Khadjavi, Menusch, 2019. "Adaptation to climate change in Afghanistan: Evidence on the impact of external interventions," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 64-82.
    4. Caliendo, Marco & Künn, Steffen & Weißenberger, Martin, 2016. "Personality traits and the evaluation of start-up subsidies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 87-108.
    5. Do Xuan Luan, 2015. "Microcredit and Poverty Reduction: A Case Study of Microfinance Fund for Community Development in Northern Vietnam," Journal of Agricultural Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 7(8), pages 1-44, July.
    6. Caliendo, Marco & Mahlstedt, Robert & Mitnik, Oscar A., 2017. "Unobservable, but unimportant? The relevance of usually unobserved variables for the evaluation of labor market policies," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 14-25.
    7. Marco Caliendo & Steffen Künn, 2015. "Getting back into the labor market: the effects of start-up subsidies for unemployed females," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(4), pages 1005-1043, October.
    8. Torsten Lietzmann & Paul Schmelzer & Jürgen Wiemers, 2017. "Marginal employment for welfare recipients: stepping stone or obstacle?," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 31(4), pages 394-414, December.
    9. Vanessa Ress & Eva‐Maria Wild, 2024. "The impact of integrated care on health care utilization and costs in a socially deprived urban area in Germany: A difference‐in‐differences approach within an event‐study framework," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 229-247, February.
    10. Gasmi, Farid & Berté, Isacco & Demoury, Louise & Kouakou, Dorgyles & Patzig, Niklas & Recuero Virto, Laura, 2024. "The privatization-corruption relationship is nonlinear: Evidence from 1985-2022 data on telecommunications in 103 countries," TSE Working Papers 24-1523, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    11. Marco Caliendo & Stefan Tübbicke, 2019. "Do Start-Up Subsidies for the Unemployed Affect Participants’ Well-Being? A Rigorous Look at (Un-)Intended Consequences of Labor Market Policies," CEPA Discussion Papers 14, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
    12. Münch, Florian Anselm & Scheifele, Fabian, 2023. "Nurturing national champions? Local content in solar auctions and firm innovation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    13. Ruud Gerards & Riccardo Welters, 2020. "Liquidity Constraints, Unemployed Job Search and Labour Market Outcomes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(3), pages 625-646, June.
    14. Robert J. R. Elliott & Liza Jabbour & Liyun Zhang, 2016. "Firm productivity and importing: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(3), pages 1086-1124, August.
    15. L. Behrenz & L. Delander & J. Månsson, 2016. "Is Starting a Business a Sustainable way out of Unemployment? Treatment Effects of the Swedish Start-up Subsidy," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 389-411, December.
    16. Kenza Benhima & Omar Chafik & Min Fang & Wenxia Tang, 2022. "Short-term Finance, Long-term Effects: Theory and Evidence from Morocco," Working Papers 002003, University of Florida, Department of Economics.
    17. Daly, Moira, 2015. "The long term returns of attempting self-employment with regular employment as a fall back option," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 26-52.
    18. Lutz Bellmann & Marco Caliendo & Stefan Tübbicke, 2018. "The Post‐Reform Effectiveness of the New German Start‐Up Subsidy for the Unemployed," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 32(3), pages 293-319, September.
    19. Walke, Adam G. & Fullerton, Thomas M. & Tokle, Robert J., 2018. "Risk-based loan pricing consequences for credit unions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 105-119.
    20. Jaana Rahko, 2016. "Internationalization of corporate R&D activities and innovation performance," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 25(6), pages 1019-1038.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers
    • L2 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18024. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mark Fallak (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaalu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.