IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ipu/wpaper/123.html

Income Tax Indexation and Fiscal Drag: Effects on the Personal Tax Burden

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanni Cuttica

    (University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy)

  • Luisa Loiacono

    (University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy, and London School of Economics Visiting Fellow, London, United Kingdom.)

  • Leonzio Rizzo

    (University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy, and Institut d’Economia de Barcelona (IEB), University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.)

  • Riccardo Secomandi

    (University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy, and Institut d’Economia de Barcelona (IEB), University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.)

Abstract

This paper studies whether indexation of personal income tax parameters mitigates fiscal drag, focusing on the Average Income Tax Rate (AITR) on labor income. Using an OECD panel, we estimate the impact of the intensity of inflation on the AITR, differentiating by non-indexing and indexing systems. We show that indexation systematically changes the inflation-AITR relationship by weakening the pass through from inflation into average tax rates. We show that the increase in the Consumer Price Index from 2019 to 2024 is associated with a decrease in the average AITR of more than 1.75 percentage points due to indexing regimes and an increase of 1.18 percentage points due to non-indexing regimes. The differential impact of the indexation of the fiscal system implies a decrease of the inflation impact on AITR of 0.57 percentage points, which is about 3% of the mean of the AITR in 2019. This means that the average income tax, when the fiscal system is indexed to inflation, decreases following an increase in consumer prices: the purchasing power of wages, even when updated, usually declines after inflation, and we show that if the fiscal system is properly indexed, it will take this into account by decreasing taxes.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Cuttica & Luisa Loiacono & Leonzio Rizzo & Riccardo Secomandi, 2026. "Income Tax Indexation and Fiscal Drag: Effects on the Personal Tax Burden," Working papers 123, Società Italiana di Economia Pubblica.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipu:wpaper:123
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.siepweb.it/siep/wp/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SIEP-WP_790_Rizzo_et_al.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Franco Modigliani & Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa, 1977. "La politica economica in una economia con salari indicizzati al 100% piu," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 30(117), pages 3-53.
    2. Herwig Immervoll & Horacio Levy & Christine Lietz & Daniela Mantovani & Cathal O’Donoghue & Holly Sutherland & Gerlinde Verbist, 2006. "Household Incomes and Redistribution in the European Union: Quantifying the Equalizing Properties of Taxes and Benefits," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Dimitri B. Papadimitriou (ed.), The Distributional Effects of Government Spending and Taxation, chapter 5, pages 135-165, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Holly Sutherland & Ruth Hancock & John Hills & Francesca Zantomio, 2008. "Keeping up or Falling behind? The Impact of Benefit and Tax Uprating on Incomes and Poverty," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(4), pages 467-498, December.
    4. Alari Paulus & Holly Sutherland & Iva Tasseva, 2020. "Indexing Out of Poverty? Fiscal Drag and Benefit Erosion in Cross‐National Perspective," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(2), pages 311-333, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Callan, Tim & Keane, Claire & Regan, Mark, 2019. "Assessing the distributional impact of budgetary policy: the role of benchmarks and indexation," Papers BP2020/2, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. García-Miralles, Esteban & Freier, Maximilian & Riscado, Sara & Leventi, Chrysa & Mazzon, Alberto & Abela, Glenn & Boyd, Laura & Brusbārde, Baiba & Cochard, Marion & Cornille, David & Dicarlo, Emanuel, 2026. "Fiscal drag in theory and in practice: A European perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    3. André Decoster & Sergio Perelman & Dieter Vandelannoote & Toon Vanheukelom & Gerlinde Verbist, 2019. "Which way the pendulum swings? Equity and efficiency of three decades of tax-benefit reforms in Belgium," Working Papers 1907, Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy, University of Antwerp.
    4. Alari Paulus & Iva Valentinova Tasseva, 2020. "Europe Through the Crisis: Discretionary Policy Changes and Automatic Stabilizers," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(4), pages 864-888, August.
    5. Süssmuth, Bernd & Wieschemeyer, Matthias, 2022. "Taxation and the distributional impact of inflation: The U.S. post-war experience," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    6. Herwig Immervoll & Horacio Levy & José Ricardo Nogueira & Cathal O´Donoghue & Rozane Bezerra de Siqueira, 2005. "The Impact of Brazil´s Tax-Benefit System on Inequality and Poverty," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 117, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    7. De Agostini, Paola & Hills, John & Sutherland, Holly, 2015. "Were we really all in it together? The distributional effects of the 2010-2015 UK Coalition government's tax-benefit policy changes: an end-of-term update," EUROMOD Working Papers EM13/15, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    8. De Agostini, Paola & Sutherland, Holly & Hills, John, 2015. "Were we really all in it together? The distributional effects of the 2010-2015 UK Coalition government’s tax-benefit policy changes: an end-of-term update," EUROMOD Working Papers EM13/15, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    9. Anna Kurowska & Michal Myck & Katharina Wrohlich, 2012. "Family and Labor Market Choices: Requirements to Guide Effective Evidence-Based Policy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1234, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Vanda Almeida, 2020. "Income Inequality and Redistribution in the Aftermath of the 2007-2008 Crisis: The U.S. Case," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 73(1), pages 77-114, March.
    11. Ivica Urban, 2009. "Kakwani decomposition of redistributive effect: Origins, critics and upgrades," Working Papers 148, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    12. repec:cep:spccrp:22 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Sean Higgins & Claudiney Pereira, 2013. "The effects of Brazil's high taxation and social spending on the distribution of household income," Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Working Paper Series 1307, Tulane University, Department of Economics, revised May 2013.
    14. José Félix Sanz Sanz & María Arrazola Vacas, 2025. "Unveiling the bracket creep: static versus dynamic fiscal drag," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 443-475, December.
    15. Bea Cantillon; & Anna Lemmens; & Wouter Neelen; & Rebecca van den Broeck;, 2023. "Silent elements of policy change: inflation and uprating mechanisms in the Low Countries," Working Papers 2312, Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy, University of Antwerp.
    16. Giovanni Michelagnoli, 2015. "The Shaping of Incomes Policy in the Eighties. The Contribution of Ezio Tarantelli," HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT AND POLICY, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2015(2), pages 37-56.
    17. Koen Caminada & Chen Wang, 2011. "Disentangling Income Inequality and the Redistributive Effect of Social Transfers and Taxes in 36 LIS Countries," LIS Working papers 567, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    18. Eva Festl & Hedwig Lutz & Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger, 2010. "Mögliche Ansätze zur Unterstützung von Familien," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 38701.
    19. Olivier Bargain & Tim Callan, 2010. "Analysing the effects of tax-benefit reforms on income distribution: a decomposition approach," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 8(1), pages 1-21, March.
    20. Sara Torregrosa Hetland, 2015. "Did democracy bring redistribution? Insights from the Spanish tax system, 1960–90," European Review of Economic History, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 294-315.
    21. Ivica Urban, 2008. "Income Redistribution in Croatia: The Role of Individual Taxes and Social Transfers," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 32(3), pages 387-403.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipu:wpaper:123. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Monica Bozzano (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.