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O Impacto da Reforma Tributária na Economia Brasileira: Uma Análise com o Modelo CGE

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  • Napoleão Luiz Costa da Silva
  • Octávio Augusto Fontes Tourinho
  • Yann Le Boulluec Alves

Abstract

Neste trabalho, avaliamos os impactos econômicos de longo prazo na economiabrasileira de três medidas integrantes da reforma do sistema tributário: atransformação parcial da Contribuição para o Financiamento da Seguridade Social(Cofins) em uma contribuição sobre o valor adicionado, a adoção do PIS/Pasep e daCofins sobre importações e a substituição parcial da contribuição previdenciária poruma contribuição sobre o valor adicionado. O instrumento utilizado foi um modelode equilíbrio geral da economia brasileira (CGE-IPEA), cujo bloco fiscal foi adaptadopara permitir a análise detalhada daquelas medidas.Nos nossos resultados, o PIB real é pouco afetado, mas a carga fiscal totalaumenta 0,3% e 0,53% do PIB, respectivamente, com a implantação das duasprimeiras medidas listadas. O impacto fiscal da última é nulo, por hipótese. Com aadoção de cada uma das três medidas há uma redução nas importações e nasexportações, mas esse resultado depende de maneira crucial nas hipóteses de taxa decâmbio flutuante e saldo constante da balança de transações correntes que nósadotamos nesta versão do modelo. O efeito das três medidas consideradas aqui sobreo bem-estar pode ser medido pelo seu impacto no salário real, que é +0,40% para aprimeira delas e de ?0,20% e ?0,10%, respectivamente, para as duas últimas. In this paper we assess the long run economic impact in the Brazilian economy ofthree policies that are part of the Reform of the Brazilian tax system: the partialtransformation of the contribution for the financing of the social security system(Cofins) into a value added contribution, the incidence of PIS/Pasep and Cofins onimports, and the partial replacement of the social security tax by a contribution overvalue added. The instrument we use is a computable general equilibrium model ofthe Brazilian economy (CGE-IPEA) whose fiscal block was adapted to allow thedetailed analysis of those policies.In our results, the GNP is scarcely affected, but the total fiscal burden increasesby 0.3% and 0.53% of GNP, respectively, with the adoption of the first twomeasures listed above. The fiscal impact of the last one is null, by hypothesis. Withthe adoption of each of the three measures there is a reduction of imports andexports, but this result depends on a crucial way on the hypothesis of floatingexchange rate and constant current account balance that we adopted in this version ofthe model. The effect of the three measures considered here on welfare can bemeasured by their impact on real wages, and is +0.40% for the first one, and ?0.2%and ?0.1%, respectively, for the last two.

Suggested Citation

  • Napoleão Luiz Costa da Silva & Octávio Augusto Fontes Tourinho & Yann Le Boulluec Alves, 2004. "O Impacto da Reforma Tributária na Economia Brasileira: Uma Análise com o Modelo CGE," Discussion Papers 1056, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1056
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Maldonado, Wilfredo L. & Tourinho, Octavio A.F. & Valli, Marcos, 2003. "Impactos da ALCA e do acordo comercial com a UE na economia brasileira: o papel das reservas internacionais," Oficina de la CEPAL en Brasilia (Estudios e Investigaciones) 28362, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    4. Volpe Martincus, Christian, 2004. "Do economic integration and fiscal competition help to explain location patterns?," ZEI Working Papers B 15-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    5. Nogueira, José Ricardo & Siqueira, Rozane Bezerra de & de Souza, Evaldo Santana, 2001. "A Incidência Final dos Impostos Indiretos no Brasil: Efeitos da Tributação de Insumos," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 55(4), October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Samir Cury & Allexandro Mori Coelho, 2006. "From Revenue To Value Added Taxes: Welfare and Fiscal Efficiency Effects In Brazil," EcoMod2006 272100013, EcoMod.
    2. Cury, Samir & Mori Coelho, Allexandro, 2010. "From Revenue to Value Added Taxes: Welfare and Fiscal Efficiency Effects in Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 64(4), December.

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