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The Macroeconomic Consequences of Raising the Minimum Wage: Capital Accumulation, Employment and the Wage Distribution

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandre Janiak
  • Sofía Bauducco

Abstract

We study the quantitative impact of a rise in the minimum wage on macroeconomic outcomes such as employment, the stock of capital and the distribution of wages. Our modeling framework is the large-firm search and matching model. Our comparative statics are in line with previous empirical findings: a moderate increase in the minimum wage barely affects employment, while it compresses the wage distribution and generates positive spillovers on higher wages. The model also predicts an increase in the stock of capital. Next, we perform the policy experiment of introducing a 10 dollar minimum wage. Our results suggest large positive effects on capital (4.0%) and output (1.8%), with a decrease in employment by 2.8%. The introduction of a 9 dollar minimum wage would instead produce similar effects on capital accumulation without harming employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandre Janiak & Sofía Bauducco, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Raising the Minimum Wage: Capital Accumulation, Employment and the Wage Distribution," Documentos de Trabajo 481, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    • Handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:481
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    2. Karel Brůna & Jiří Pour, 2023. "Population aging and structural over/underinvestment," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2339-2383, August.
    3. Blömer, Maximilian J. & Guertzgen, Nicole & Pohlan, Laura & Stichnoth, Holger & van den Berg, Gerard J., 2024. "Unemployment effects of the German minimum wage in an equilibrium job search model," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    4. Paul Redmond & Karina Doorley & Seamus McGuinness, 2021. "The impact of a minimum wage change on the distribution of wages and household income," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(3), pages 1034-1056.
    5. Panagiotis Nanos, 2023. "Minimum wage spillover effects and social welfare in a model of stochastic job matching," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 25(4), pages 753-802, August.
    6. Rémi Bazillier & María Moraga-Fernández, 2025. "Minimum Wage Shocks, Firms and Employment Evidence from Africa," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 25006, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    7. Nakamura, Daisuke, 2024. "Is part-time employment an adjusting valve?: Business cycle analysis on the labor market in Japan by dual search and matching model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    8. Marianna Kudlyak & Murat Tasci & Didem Tuzemen, 2019. "Minimum Wage Increases and Vacancies," Working Papers 19-30R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 21 Apr 2022.
    9. Seok, Byoung Hoon & You, Hye Mi, 2022. "Macroeconomic impacts of increasing the minimum wage: The case of Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    10. Robayo, Monica & Zamfir,Madalina & Wronski,Marcin, 2024. "Simulating Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Minimum Wage Increases in Romania : Evidence from Survey and Administrative Tax Data," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10934, The World Bank.
    11. Alexandre Janiak & Jonathan Rojas Hepburn, 2023. "The Grasshopper, the Ant, and the Minimum Wage," Documentos de Trabajo 570, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    12. Cristian Valeriu Paun & Radu Nechita & Alexandru Patruti & Mihai Vladimir Topan, 2021. "The Impact of the Minimum Wage on Employment: An EU Panel Data Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-17, August.
    13. Koch, Andreas & Kirchmann, Andrea & Reiner, Marcel & Scheu, Tobias & Zühlke, Anne & Bonin, Holger, 2020. "Verhaltensmuster von Betrieben und Beschäftigten im Kontext des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns," IZA Research Reports 97, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Yao, Peng & Tian, Zhijin & Li, Jinze, 2025. "The invisible hand of transfer: The income distribution effect of water resource fee to tax," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 76-97.
    15. Zhao, Yueyang & Mao, Jinzhou, 2022. "Energy effects of non-energy policies: Minimum wage standard and enterprise energy efficiency in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy
    • L20 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - General

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