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Liberalization of capital inflows and the real exchange rate in India: A VAR analysis

Author

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  • Indrani Chakraborty

    (Centre for Development Studies)

Abstract

The East Asian crisis of 1997-98 and the Mexican crisis of 1994 generated much concern among policy analysts regarding the role of macroeconomic policies in the management of capital inflows. A series of economic reform measures including liberalization of foreign capital inflows were initiated in India since the early nineties. Using the vector autoregression (VAR) method, this paper specifically examines if the external shock generated by capital inflows led to appreciation in the real exchange rate as observed in the East Asian and Latin American countries in the 1990's. The role of monetary and fiscal policies in managing the effect of capital inflows on the real exchange rate is also analysed in this context. Based on the quarterly data from 1993.2 to 2001.4 and incorporating the variables such as the real exchange rate, capital inflows, the rate of growth of domestic credit and the rate of inflation, three important observations emerge from the VAR analysis: (a) unlike the East Asian and Latin American countries, the real exchange rate depreciates with respect to one standard deviation innovation to capital inflows, (b) the dynamic impact of random disturbances generated by capital inflows on the real exchange rate is persistent, and (c) the dynamic response of the real exchange rate to capital inflows shock has largely been influenced by monetary policy and not by fiscal policy. The paper argues that the monetary policy was effective in avoiding any serious distortion in the real exchange rate following the liberalization of capital inflows in India while sacrificing its long-term objectives. It addresses two limitations in the existing macroeconomic policies i.e. (a) lack of fiscal consolidation and (b) lack of capital control instruments which seems to have created undesirable pressure on the monetary policy to realize its long-term objectives in the regime of liberalized capital inflows.

Suggested Citation

  • Indrani Chakraborty, 2003. "Liberalization of capital inflows and the real exchange rate in India: A VAR analysis," Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum Working Papers 351, Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum, India.
    • Handle: RePEc:ind:cdswpp:351
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sebastian Edwards, 2000. "Capital Flows, Real Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: Some Latin American Experiences," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 197-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. José De Gregorio, 2000. "Comment on "Capital Flows, Real Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: Some Latin American Experiences"," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 247-253, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Calvo, Guillermo A & Mendoza, Enrique G, 1996. "Petty Crime and Cruel Punishment: Lessons from the Mexican Debacle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 170-175, May.
    4. Sebastian Edwards, 2000. "Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number edwa00-1, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dr. Md. Izhar Ahmad & Tariq Masood, 2015. "Macroeconomic Implications of Capital Inflows in India," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(4), pages 53-71.
    2. Narayan Sethi, 2012. "Inflows and their Macroeconomic Impact in India a VAR Analysis," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 15(45), pages 93-142, December.
    3. N.R. Bhanumurthy & Sukanya Bose & Swayamsiddha Panda, 2014. "Modelling India’s External Sector: Review and Some Empirics," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 8(4), pages 457-493, November.
    4. Bilesha B. Weeraratne, 2011. "Solving the Forward Discount Bias Puzzle in a Small Open Developing Economy," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 12(1), pages 61-89, March.

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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