Managing risks of capital mobility
Inherent in pursuing openness to international capital flows is an awareness that it brings both benefits and risks. Much of the current debate is about how best to balance them. Major benefits for developing countries include access to a broader menu of investment sources, options, and instruments, as well as enhanced efficiency of domestic financial institutions and the discipline of capital markets in conducting domestic macroeconomic policy. By easing financing constraints, the greater availability of international finance can extend the period for implementing needed adjustments. From the perspective of emerging market economies, the author highlights two sources of risk: the host governments'policy of liberalizing capital controls before having established the macroeconomic, regulatory, and institutional foundations required for capital openness. A shift in foreign leaders'and investors'sentiments and confidence, not necessarily related to a particular country's long-term creditworthiness. Risk management demands judicious strategies for both corporate and financial institutions and national policy. At the institutional level, with the advances in technology and communications, financial risk management practice has improved significantly in recent years through the use of statistical models, such as value at risk, computer simulation, and stress testing. At the national level, with the worldwide trend toward democracy, the author argues that managing the risks of financial openness will require developing national mechanisms through which to provide insurance to citizens-through the marketplace or through redistributive policy-and thus to avert political pressure for capital controls. To succeed, open democratic societies have to balance the threat of capital exit, made easier by the opening of capital markets, with the political voice of citizens-demanding protection through redistribution, social safety nets, and other insurance-like measures. These insurance measures have been critical increasing the tension between politics and financial openness in OECD countries. Indeed, cross-country empirical analysis confirms that countries that spend a large share of their GDP on social needs (education, health, and transfer payments) are more open to free international capital flows, and also score high on measures of political and civil liberty.
|Date of creation:||31 Oct 1999|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433|
Phone: (202) 477-1234
Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alesina, Alberto F & Grilli, Vittorio & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 1993.
"The Political Economy of Capital Controls,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
793, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Francisco A. Gallego & Leonardo Hernandez & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2000.
"Capital Controls in Chile: Effective? Efficient?,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
0330, Econometric Society.
- Assaf Razin & Andrew Rose, 1992. "Business Cycle Volatility and Openness: An Exploratory Cross-Section Analysis," NBER Working Papers 4208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John C. Harsanyi, 1953. "Cardinal Utility in Welfare Economics and in the Theory of Risk-taking," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61, pages 434.
- Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
- Calvo, Guillermo A & Mendoza, Enrique G, 1996. "Petty Crime and Cruel Punishment: Lessons from the Mexican Debacle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 170-75, May.
- Sebastian Edwards, 2000.
"Capital Flows, Real Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: Some Latin American Experiences,"
in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 197-246
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sebastian Edwards, 1998. "Capital Flows, Real Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: Some Latin American Experiences," NBER Working Papers 6800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Garrett, Geoffrey, 1998. "Global Markets and National Politics: Collision Course or Virtuous Circle?," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(04), pages 787-824, September.
- Razeen Sally, 1998. "Classical Liberalism and International Economic Order: An Advance Sketch," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 19-44, March.
- Dennis Mueller, 1998. "Constitutional Constraints on Governments in a Global Economy," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 171-186, September.
- Kapstein, Ethan B., 1989. "Resolving the regulator's dilemma: international coordination of banking regulations," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(02), pages 323-347, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2199. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.