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China’s Capacity Reduction Reform and Its Impact on Producer Prices

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  • Linxi Chen
  • Ding Ding
  • Rui Mano

Abstract

In late 2015, the Chinese authorities launched a policy to reduce capacity in the coal and steel industries under the wider effort of Supply-Side Structural Reforms. Around the same time, producer price inflation in China started to pick up strongly after being trapped in negative territory for more than fifty consecutive months. So what is behind this strong reflation—capacity cuts in coal and steel, or a strengthening of aggregate demand? Our empirical analyses indicate that a pickup in aggregate demand, possibly due to the government’s stimulus package in 2015-16, was the more important driver. Capacity cuts played a role in propping up coal and steel prices, explaining at most 40 percent of their price increase.

Suggested Citation

  • Linxi Chen & Ding Ding & Rui Mano, 2018. "China’s Capacity Reduction Reform and Its Impact on Producer Prices," IMF Working Papers 2018/216, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/216
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    2. Ding Ding & Xiaoyu Huang & Tao Jin & Mr. Waikei R Lam, 2017. "Assessing China’s Residential Real Estate Market," IMF Working Papers 2017/248, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Haley, Usha C.V. & Haley, George T., 2013. "Subsidies to Chinese Industry: State Capitalism, Business Strategy, and Trade Policy," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199773749, Decembrie.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rui Mano & Jiayi Zhang, 2018. "China’s Rebalancing: Recent Progress, Prospects and Policies," IMF Working Papers 2018/243, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Bing Tong, 2020. "Capacity Reduction Policy Under the Interest Rate Peg in China," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2020/2, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    3. Tong, Bing, 2021. "The effects of capacity reduction policy under the interest rate peg in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

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