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Stochastic Volatilities and Correlations, Extreme Values and Modeling the Macroeconomic Environment, Under Which Brazilian Banks Operate

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  • Mr. Marcos R Souto
  • Mr. Theodore M. Barnhill

Abstract

Using monthly data for a set of variables, we examine the out-of-sample performance of various variance/covariance models and find that no model has consistently outperformed the others. We also show that it is possible to increase the probability mass toward the tails and to match reasonably well the historical evolution of volatilities by changing a decay factor appropriately. Finally, we implement a simple stochastic volatility model and simulate the credit transition matrix for two large Brazilian banks and show that this methodology has the potential to improve simulated transition probabilities as compared to the constant volatility case. In particular, it can shift CTM probabilities towards lower credit risk categories.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Marcos R Souto & Mr. Theodore M. Barnhill, 2007. "Stochastic Volatilities and Correlations, Extreme Values and Modeling the Macroeconomic Environment, Under Which Brazilian Banks Operate," IMF Working Papers 2007/290, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/290
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
    2. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Lange, Steve, 1999. "Forecasting financial market volatility: Sample frequency vis-a-vis forecast horizon," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(5), pages 457-477, December.
    3. Mr. Taimur Baig & Mr. Ilan Goldfajn, 2000. "The Russian Default and the Contagion to Brazil," IMF Working Papers 2000/160, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Akgiray, Vedat & Booth, G Geoffrey, 1988. "The Stable-Law Model of Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(1), pages 51-57, January.
    5. Akgiray, Vedat, 1989. "Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Time Series of Stock Returns: Evidence and Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(1), pages 55-80, January.
    6. Kate Adjaoute & Martin Bruand & Rajna Gibson‐Asner, 1998. "On the Predictability of the Stock Market Volatility: Does History Matter?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 4(3), pages 293-319, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Barnhill, Theodore M. & Souto, Marcos Rietti, 2008. "Systemic bank risk in Brazil: an assessment of correlated market, credit, sovereign and inter-bank risk in an environment with stochastic volatilities and correlations," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,13, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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