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Performance evaluation in competitive REE models

Author

Listed:
  • Paolo Colla

    (Università Bocconi)

  • José M. Marín

    (IMDEA Social Sciences Institute)

Abstract

Our basic premise is that fund managers performance is related to superior information about an asset payoff. We investigate the relationship between managerial skills and trading behavior within a two-period rational expectation equilibrium (REE) model where agents trade on private information in the first round, while a public signal arrives at the second date that makes traders revise their beliefs and retrade. The public signal can be related to the asset payoff, or to variables not related to fundamentals (noise), or both. We characterize the unique partially revealing REE and explore the drivers of price dynamics and trading behavior. Our main prediction is that good managers are contrarian traders, while bad managers are momentum traders when public news arrive to the market. Furthermore, the change in holdings of each type of trader is monotonic on the traders' skills. Based on these predictions, we propose new performance evaluation measures that rely on the manager's change in holdings around the arrival of public news rather than his past performance. A byproduct of our analysis is the proposal of a new protocol for performance evaluation and Due Diligence (DD) procedures.

Suggested Citation

  • Paolo Colla & José M. Marín, 2010. "Performance evaluation in competitive REE models," Working Papers 2010-21, Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales.
  • Handle: RePEc:imd:wpaper:wp2010-21
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marcin Kacperczyk & Amit Seru, 2007. "Fund Manager Use of Public Information: New Evidence on Managerial Skills," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 485-528, April.
    2. Péter Kondor, 2009. "The more we know, the less we agree: Higher-order expectations and public announcements," 2009 Meeting Papers 1018, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 2000. "Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 433-451.
    4. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    5. José M. Marín & Rohit Rahi, 2000. "Information Revelation and Market Incompleteness," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 563-579.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    REE; performance evaluation; mutual fund; hedge funds; talent; informed traders; due diligence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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