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Terms of Trade in the Medium-run

Author

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  • Vahagn Galstyan

    () (Institute for International Integration Studies, Trinity College Dublin)

Abstract

This paper contributes to empirical research on the dynamics of the terms of trade. We start by proposing a method for constructing different measures of the terms of trade. This is achieved by estimating a range of substitution elasticities using a panel data approach and highly disaggregated data on trade flows. Next, various measures of the terms of trade and trade margins are related to productivity and demand proxies. We find that domestic demand side movements are positively related to the terms of trade, while domestic productivity gains result in a deterioration of the terms of trade. Our results suggest that higher relative productivity raises the real component of exports relative to imports along the intensive margin inducing a weakening of the terms of trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Vahagn Galstyan, 2011. "Terms of Trade in the Medium-run," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp382, IIIS.
  • Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp382
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
    2. Paolo Epifani & Gino Gancia, 2009. "Openness, Government Size and the Terms of Trade," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(2), pages 629-668.
    3. Daron Acemoglu & Jaume Ventura, 2002. "The World Income Distribution," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 659-694.
    4. Gaulier, Guillaume & Zignago, Soledad, 2004. "Notes on BACI (analytical database of international trade). 1989-2002 version," MPRA Paper 32401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Vahagn Galstyan, 2015. "Productivity, Trade, and Relative Prices in a Ricardian World," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 817-838, September.
    6. Guillaume Gaulier & Isabelle Méjean, 2006. "Import Prices, Variety and the Extensive Margin of Trade," Working Papers 2006-17, CEPII research center.
    7. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Martin, Philippe & Pesenti, Paolo, 2007. "Productivity, terms of trade and the `home market effect'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 99-127, September.
    8. Jagdish Bhagwati, 1958. "Immiserizing Growth: A Geometrical Note," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 201-205.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Terms of trade; Trade margins; International prices;

    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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