IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iie/pbrief/pb15-15.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal Tightening and Economic Growth: Exploring Cross-Country Correlations

Author

Listed:
  • Paolo Mauro

    () (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Jan Zilinsky

    () (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

The global financial and economic crisis that began in 2008 has rekindled the debate on the impact of fiscal policy on economic growth. At the outset of the crisis the focus—particularly in the United States—was on whether fiscal stimulus (an expansion in the fiscal deficit) boosts economic growth. Since 2011 or so, with the depth of the crisis becoming more severe in some European countries and Greece in particular, the emphasis of the debate has shifted to whether fiscal adjustment (a reduction in the fiscal deficit) curtails economic growth. Public discourse has been heavily influenced by simple charts analyzing the correlations between measures of fiscal “austerity” and economic growth for small samples of countries over limited time periods. Mauro and Zilinsky analyze the correlations in the data starting from the simplest and gradually building up, in a step-by-step, transparent manner, to multivariate regressions based on various samples of countries for different periods. The results show that simple correlations are no longer significant when considering slightly longer sample periods and omitting outliers, like Greece, from the sample. In multivariate regressions using broader samples, a tightening of fiscal policy is significantly associated with lower economic growth only in some specifications and estimation samples. On the whole, the data offer partial support to the notion that fiscal choices and output growth are correlated.

Suggested Citation

  • Paolo Mauro & Jan Zilinsky, 2015. "Fiscal Tightening and Economic Growth: Exploring Cross-Country Correlations," Policy Briefs PB15-15, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb15-15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/fiscal-tightening-and-economic-growth-exploring-cross-country
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    2. Anja Baum & Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Anke Weber, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers and the State of the Economy," IMF Working Papers 12/286, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jacques Fontanel, 2016. "La science économique en débats et en défaut face à la crise," Working Papers hal-02080923, HAL.
    2. Fragetta, Matteo & Tamborini, Roberto, 2019. "It's not austerity. Or is it? Assessing the effect of austerity on growth in the European Union, 2010-15," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 196-212.
    3. Ernesto Longobardi & Antonio Pedone, 2018. "On some recent proposals of public debt restructuring in the Eurozone," Chapters, in: Giuseppe Eusepi & Richard E. Wagner (ed.), Debt Default and Democracy, chapter 6, pages 84-123, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Matteo Fragetta & Roberto Tamborini, 2017. "It’s not austerity. Or is it? Assessing the effect of austerity on growth in Europe, 2010-15," DEM Working Papers 2017/10, Department of Economics and Management.
    5. Jacques Fontanel, 2018. "Développement économique, conflits et guerres. Les leçons partisanes de la science économique," Working Papers hal-02127938, HAL.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb15-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peterson Institute webmaster). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/iieeeus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.