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Regional Growth in Central Europe. Long-term Effects of Population and Traffic Structure

Author

Listed:
  • Polasek, Wolfgang

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna)

  • Berrer, Helmut

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna)

Abstract

In a simple growth model we explore the current and future growth effects of the regional population structure. Regional GDP growth in 227 regions within six countries in central Europe is explored as how they depend on the young and old dependency ratio. The young dependency ratio (YDR) is defined as ratio of the less than 20 years old and the old dependency ratio (ODR) as the more than 60 years old divided by the total population. We found a medium sized negative correlation of these ratios on regional growth and the long-term forecasts for the year 2020 are for most regions rather negative if only the population structure is considered. Similar scenarios can be also obtained for employment and population growth. The long-term forecasts improve if traffic accessibilities and dynamic interactions are introduced into the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Polasek, Wolfgang & Berrer, Helmut, 2005. "Regional Growth in Central Europe. Long-term Effects of Population and Traffic Structure," Economics Series 172, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:172
    as

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    File URL: https://irihs.ihs.ac.at/id/eprint/1645
    File Function: First version, 2005
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Barro & Paul Romer, 1993. "Economic Growth (1992)," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr93-1, March.
    2. James P. Lesage, 1997. "Bayesian Estimation of Spatial Autoregressive Models," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 20(1-2), pages 113-129, April.
    3. Brunow, Stephan & Hirte, Georg, 2005. "Age Structure and Regional Income Growth," Discussion Papers 1/2005, Technische Universität Dresden, "Friedrich List" Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences, Institute of Transport and Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Polasek, Wolfgang & Schwarzbauer, Wolfgang, 2006. "Traffic Accessibility and the Effect on Firms and Population in 99 Austrian Regions," Economics Series 198, Institute for Advanced Studies.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Panel data; Simpson paradox; GDP; Employment and population growth; Long-term forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • L92 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Railroads and Other Surface Transportation
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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