Aid, Exports, and Growth: A Time-Series Perspective on the Dutch Disease Hypothesis
The available evidence on the effects of aid on growth is notoriously mixed. We use a novel empirical methodology, a heterogeneous panel vector-autoregression model identified through factor analysis, to study the dynamic response of exports, imports, and per capita GDP growth to a "global" aid shock (the common component of individual country aid-to-GDP ratios). We find that the estimated cumulative resposive of exports and per capita GDP growth to a global aid shock are strongly positively correlated, and both responses are inversely related to exchange rate overvaluation measures. We interpret this evidence as consistent with the Dutch disease hypothesis. However, we also find that, in countries with less overvalued real exchange rates, exports and per capita GDP growth respond positively to a global aid shock. This evidence suggests that preventing exchange rate overvaluations may allow aid-receiving countries to avoid the Dutch disease.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.iadb.org/res
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- repec:tpr:qjecon:v:110:y:1995:i:2:p:495-525 is not listed on IDEAS
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2009.
"Aid, Dutch Disease, and Manufacturing Growth,"
196, Center for Global Development.
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005.
"Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?,"
NBER Working Papers
11513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2008. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 643-665, November.
- Raghuram Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," IMF Working Papers 05/127, International Monetary Fund.
- Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Aid and Growth: What Does The Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," Working Papers id:54, eSocialSciences.
- Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Henrik Hansen & Finn Tarp, 2004.
"On The Empirics of Foreign Aid and Growth,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(496), pages F191-F216, 06.
- Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Hansen, Henrik & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "On the Empirics of Foreign Aid and Growth," MPRA Paper 63696, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Henrik Hansen & Finn Tarp, 2001. "On the Empirics of Foreign Aid and Growth," EPRU Working Paper Series 03-13, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics, revised Sep 2003.
- Thierry Tressel & Alessandro Prati, 2006. "Aid Volatility and Dutch Disease: Is There a Role for Macroeconomic Policies?," IMF Working Papers 06/145, International Monetary Fund.
- repec:tpr:qjecon:v:113:y:1998:i:1:p:319-323 is not listed on IDEAS
- Hansen, Henrik & Tarp, Finn, 2000.
"Aid and Growth Regressions,"
62288, University Library of Munich, Germany.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4678. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Monica Bazan)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.