Aid, Exports, and Growth: a Time-Series Perspective on the Dutch Disease Hypothesis
The available evidence on the effects of aid on growth is notoriously mixed. We use a novel empirical methodology, a heterogeneous panel vector-autoregression model identified through factor analysis, to study the dynamic response of exports, imports, and per capita GDP growth to a “global” aid shock (the common component of individual country aid-to-GDP ratios). We find that the estimated cumulative responses of exports and per capita GDP growth to a global aid shock are strongly positively correlated, and both responses are inversely related to exchange rate overvaluation measures. We interpret this evidence as consistent with the Dutch disease hypothesis. However, we also find that, in countries with less overvalued real exchange rates, exports and per capita GDP growth respond positively to a global aid shock. This evidence suggests that preventing exchange rate overvaluations may allow aid-receiving countries to avoid the Dutch disease.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 3 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +39 075 5855279
Fax: +39 075 5855299
Web page: http://www.rei.unipg.it/rei/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hansen, Henrik & Tarp, Finn, 2000.
"Aid and Growth Regressions,"
62288, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Rajan, Raghuram G. & Subramanian, Arvind, 2011.
"Aid, Dutch disease, and manufacturing growth,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 106-118, January.
- Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Henrik Hansen & Finn Tarp, 2004.
"On The Empirics of Foreign Aid and Growth,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(496), pages F191-F216, 06.
- Jones, Charles I, 1995. "Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(2), pages 495-525, May.
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005.
"Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?,"
NBER Working Papers
11513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2008. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 643-665, November.
- Raghuram Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "Aid and Growth; What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," IMF Working Papers 05/127, International Monetary Fund.
- Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Aid and Growth: What Does The Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," Working Papers id:54, eSocialSciences.
- Thierry Tressel & Alessandro Prati, 2006. "Aid Volatility and Dutch Disease; Is there a Role for Macroeconomic Policies?," IMF Working Papers 06/145, International Monetary Fund.
- Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron Smith, 1998. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach- A Comment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(1), pages 319-323, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pia:review:v:3:y:2012:i:2:n:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ubaldo Pizzoli)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.