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La sostenibilidad de la política fiscal en el América Latina: El caso de Venezuela

Author

Listed:
  • Gustavo Garcia Osio
  • Rafael Rodriguez Balza
  • Luis Marcano
  • Ricardo Penfold
  • Gustavo Sanchez

Abstract

La economía venezolana se ha visto sometida desde mediados de la década de los setenta a un proceso de marcada inestabilidad y volatilidad, causado fundamentalmente por los shocks provenientes del mercado petrolero. La política fiscal ha jugado un rol determinante en la transmisión de esos shocks al resto de la economía. Por una parte, el gasto público ha mostrado un comportamiento procíclico en relación a los ingresos petroleros, transmitiendo la volatilidad de estos últimos a través de la demanda agregada interna y por tanto en las presiones inflacionarias y en el crecimiento económico. Por otra parte, el uso del tipo de cambio como mecanismo de corrección fiscal en algunas oportunidades y en otras como ancla nominal, conjuntamente con el comportamiento procíclico del gasto, han creado una situación prolongada de "stop and go" o de expansiones y ajustes recurrentes y transitorios con elevados costos de crecimiento, inflación y empobrecimiento de la población.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustavo Garcia Osio & Rafael Rodriguez Balza & Luis Marcano & Ricardo Penfold & Gustavo Sanchez, 1998. "La sostenibilidad de la política fiscal en el América Latina: El caso de Venezuela," Research Department Publications 3016, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:3016
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    2. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    3. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann & Roberto Perotti & Ernesto Talvi, 1996. "Managing Fiscal Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean: Volatility, Procyclicality, and Limited Creditworthiness," Research Department Publications 4032, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    4. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
    5. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1989. "Debt Problems and the World Macroeconomy," NBER Chapters,in: Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System, pages 331-358 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Sheila Bassett & Claire Liuksila & Alejandro García, 1994. "Fiscal Policy Sustainability in Oil-Producing Countries," IMF Working Papers 94/137, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Marshall, Jorge & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1989. "Economic and policy determinants of public sector deficits," Policy Research Working Paper Series 321, The World Bank.
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    10. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Manmohan S. Kumar & Pablo Emilio Guidotti, 1991. "Domestic Public Debt of Externally Indebted Countries," IMF Occasional Papers 80, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Claessens, Stijn & Varangis, Panos & DEC, 1994. "Oil price instability, hedging, and an oil stabilization fund : the case of Venezuela," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1290, The World Bank.
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