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La competitividad de Ecuador en la era de la dolarización: diagnóstico y propuestas

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  • Alberto Melo

Abstract

El presente trabajo tiene dos objetivos: formular un diagnóstico de la situación de competitividad de la economía ecuatoriana, y presentar una propuesta acerca de las áreas prioritarias en las que debe concentrarse la política pública en el próximo quinquenio (2003-2008) para elevar el grado de competitividad de las empresas del país. La competitividad del país se enfrenta con retos de largo y corto plazo. Los de largo plazo son tres: i) la posible sobredependencia de las exportaciones petroleras y la consiguiente pérdida de competitividad para los productos no petroleros; ii) que el marco institucional del régimen monetario de la dolarización esté todavía incompleto y que el sistema financiero quede vulnerable al patrón clásico de euforia financiera seguida de pánico, crisis financiera y colapso del sistema financiero; iii) que haya un escalamiento --o agravamiento-- de la inestabilidad política del tipo que pueda dar origen a un empeoramiento sustancial y permanente del clima de confianza para la inversión productiva. También existen dos retos graves que requieren atención más urgente: i) la inestabilidad jurídica, factor que mina la confianza de los inversionistas nacionales y extranjeros; y ii) La ausencia de una infraestructura física productiva suficiente y operada de una manera eficiente. Con base en estas conclusiones, la agenda de temas cruciales para que Ecuador eleve su competitividad contiene las siguientes tareas prioritarias: i) reducir la inestabilidad política; ii) eliminar la inestabilidad jurídica que erosiona el clima de inversión; iii) hacer un esfuerzo de transformación estructural de la economía que haga posible reducir los efectos de la enfermedad holandesa; iv) completar el marco institucional de la dolarización por medio de la creación de una institucionalidad de política fiscal favorable a la disciplina fiscal y del desarrollo de las instituciones que promuevan y protejan la estabilidad del sistema financiero; y v) mejorar la infraestructura física productiva.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Melo, 2003. "La competitividad de Ecuador en la era de la dolarización: diagnóstico y propuestas," Research Department Publications 1000, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:1000
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