Electoral Oscillations in Argentina.
The mean voter theorem suggests that all parties should rationally converge to the electoral center. Typically this leads to an outcome which is unattractive to the rich. This paper develops a general stochastic model of elections in which the electoral response is a¤ected by the valence (or quality) of the candidates. Contributions made by policy-motivated activists can influence valence, leading to the failure of the mean voter theorem. The model is then applied to the presidential elections in 1989 and 1995 in Argentina, to suggest why Carlos Menem, who won in 1989 with a populist platform, was able to win in 1995 with quite different policies that favored the upper middle class.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +39 011 6706060
Fax: +39 011 6706062
Web page: http://www.esomas.unito.it/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- McKelvey, Richard D. & Patty, John W., 2006. "A theory of voting in large elections," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 155-180, October.
- Schofield, Norman & Cataife, Guido, 2007. "A model of political competition with activists applied to the elections of 1989 and 1995 in Argentina," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 213-231, May.
- Domingo Cavallo, 2004. "Argentina and the IMF During the Two Bush Administrations," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 137-150, 03.
- repec:oup:restud:v:74:y:2007:i:3:p:965-980 is not listed on IDEAS
- Norman Schofield, 2006. "Equilibria in the spatial stochastic model of voting with party activists," Review of Economic Design, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 183-203, December.
- Harrington, Joseph E, Jr, 1993. "Economic Policy, Economic Performance, and Elections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 27-42, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:icr:wpicer:34-2007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Simone Pellegrino)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.