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Decline to boom to slowdown: Australia’s labour market in the COVID- 19 era

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This paper presents a five-year review of Australia’s labour market spanning what I term the ‘COVID-19 era’, from early 2020 through to the end of 2024. A first objective is to provide a history of the main developments in the labour market during this tumultuous period. The evolution of employment outcomes across different phases is charted, together with analysis of how adjustment happened, and which jobs and workers were most affected. In addition, topics relating to wage growth, labour supply and labour productivity, and the role of government policy, are covered in detail. A second objective is to demonstrate that understanding the COVID-19 era enables important lessons to be drawn about the operation of Australia’s labour market and about policy – relevant both for today and for similar future episodes.

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  • Jeff Borland, 2025. "Decline to boom to slowdown: Australia’s labour market in the COVID- 19 era," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2025n15, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    • Handle: RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2025n15
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    File URL: https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/5413484/wp2025n15.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James Bishop & Iris Day, 2020. "How Many Jobs Did JobKeeper Keep?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2020-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Vij, Akshay & Souza, Flavio F. & Barrie, Helen & Anilan, V. & Sarmiento, Sergio & Washington, Lynette, 2023. "Employee preferences for working from home in Australia," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 782-800.
    3. Isaac Gross & Andrew Leigh, 2022. "Assessing Australian Monetary Policy in the Twenty‐First Century," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 98(322), pages 271-295, September.
    4. Ken Henry, 2025. "The Role of the Economist in Securing the Nation's Future," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 44(2), pages 104-118, June.
    5. Chris Murphy, 2024. "An Evaluation of the Macro Policy Response to COVID," Departmental Working Papers 2024-9, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    6. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2022. "A Social Insurance Perspective on Pandemic Fiscal Policy: Implications for Unemployment Insurance and Hazard Pay," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 3-28, Spring.
    7. Ian Goldin & Pantelis Koutroumpis & François Lafond & Julian Winkler, 2024. "Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 196-268, March.
    8. Robert Breunig & Tristram Sainsbury, 2023. "Too Much of a Good Thing? Australian Cash Transfer Replacement Rates During the Pandemic," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 56(1), pages 70-90, March.
    9. Botha, Ferdi & Butterworth, Peter & Wilkins, Roger, 2022. "Protecting mental health during periods of financial stress: Evidence from the Australian Coronavirus Supplement income support payment," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
    10. Jeff Borland & Michael Coelli, 2017. "Are Robots Taking Our Jobs?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 50(4), pages 377-397, December.
    11. Chris Murphy, 2024. "An Evaluation of the Macro Policy Response to COVID," CAMA Working Papers 2024-58, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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    JEL classification:

    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies
    • J40 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - General

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