IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iab/iabdpa/200829.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A pairwise comparison of the effectiveness of selected active labour market programmes in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Stephan, Gesine

    () (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

  • Pahnke, André

    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

Abstract

"For Germany, our study estimates average effects of further vocational training, short training and job creation schemes on the employment prospects of participants. We compare participation in each programme with non-participation as well as with participation in one of the other programmes. Outcome variables are cumulated days spent in regular employment during the 3.5 years after programme start as well as the share in regular employment at the end of the observation period. First, our results show rather favourable effects of participation in further vocational training programmes and in short firm-internal training - but not of participation in job creation schemes - on the employment prospects of participants. Second, as a result of shorter lock-in effects, shorter programmes perform mostly better when estimating programme effects on days in cumulated employment. However, regarding shares in regular employment at the end of the observation period, in particular long retraining shows positive effects compared to shorter programmes." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Stephan, Gesine & Pahnke, André, 2008. "A pairwise comparison of the effectiveness of selected active labour market programmes in Germany," IAB Discussion Paper 200829, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:200829
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://doku.iab.de/discussionpapers/2008/dp2908.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Behrens, Kristian & Thisse, Jacques-Francois, 2007. "Regional economics: A new economic geography perspective," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, pages 457-465.
    2. [Reference to Proietti], Tommaso, 2000. "Comparing seasonal components for structural time series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 247-260.
    3. Schanne, N. & Wapler, R. & Weyh, A., 2010. "Regional unemployment forecasts with spatial interdependencies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 908-926, October.
    4. Jan G. de Gooijer & Rob J. Hyndman, 2005. "25 Years of IIF Time Series Forecasting: A Selective Review," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-068/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Michael Beenstock & Daniel Felsenstein, 2007. "Spatial Vector Autoregressions," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 167-196.
    6. Michael Magura, 1998. "original: IO and spatial information as Bayesian priors in an employment forecasting model," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, pages 495-503.
    7. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2006. "Forecasting with VARMA Models," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    8. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 215-238.
    9. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    10. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    11. Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann, 2016. "Economic Forecasting," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10740, June.
    12. Badi H. Baltagi, 2008. "Forecasting with panel data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 153-173.
    13. Joseph Beaulieu, J. & Miron, Jeffrey A., 1993. "Seasonal unit roots in aggregate U.S. data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 305-328.
    14. Swanson, Norman R. & White, Halbert, 1997. "Forecasting economic time series using flexible versus fixed specification and linear versus nonlinear econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 439-461, December.
    15. Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Forecast Combinations," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    16. Partridge, Mark D & Rickman, Dan S, 1998. "Generalizing the Bayesian Vector Autoregression Approach for Regional Interindustry Employment Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(1), pages 62-72, January.
    17. Graham Schindler & Philip Israilevich & Geoffrey Hewings, 1997. "Regional Economic Performance: An Integrated Approach," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 131-137.
    18. Paulo Rodrigues & Denise Osborn, 1999. "Performance of seasonal unit root tests for monthly data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(8), pages 985-1004.
    19. Giacomini, Raffaella & Granger, Clive W. J., 2004. "Aggregation of space-time processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1-2), pages 7-26.
    20. Konstantin Arkadievich Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs & Stefan Kooths, 2008. "A Dynamic Panel Data Approach to the Forecasting of the GDP of German Länder," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 195-207.
    21. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 6607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Moraga-González, José Luis & Wildenbeest, Matthijs R., 2008. "Maximum likelihood estimation of search costs," European Economic Review, Elsevier, pages 820-848.
    23. Oberhofer, Walter & Blien, Uwe & Tassinopoulos, Alexandros, 2000. "Forecasting Regional Employment With A Generalised Extrapolation Method," ERSA conference papers ersa00p170, European Regional Science Association.
    24. Kelejian, Harry H. & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2007. "The relative efficiencies of various predictors in spatial econometric models containing spatial lags," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 363-374, May.
    25. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "On the selection of forecasting models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 273-306, February.
    26. Uwe Blien & Alexandros Tassinopoulos, 2001. "Forecasting Regional Employment with the ENTROP Method," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 113-124.
    27. Franses, Philip Hans, 1991. "Seasonality, non-stationarity and the forecasting of monthly time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 199-208, August.
    28. Weller, Barry R., 1989. "National indicator series as quantitative predictors of small region monthly employment levels," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 241-247.
    29. Ray, W. D., 1989. "Rates of convergence to steady state for the linear growth version of a dynamic linear model (DLM)," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 537-545.
    30. Harvey, Andrew, 2006. "Forecasting with Unobserved Components Time Series Models," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    31. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
    32. Osborn, Denise R. & Heravi, Saeed & Birchenhall, C. R., 1999. "Seasonal unit roots and forecasts of two-digit European industrial production," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 27-47, February.
    33. Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben & Owyang, Michael T., 2006. "The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, pages 335-339.
    34. Giuseppe Arbia & Marco Bee & Giuseppe Espa, 2007. "Aggregation of regional economic time series with different spatial correlation structures," Department of Economics Working Papers 0720, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    35. Edlund, Per-Olov & Karlsson, Sune, 1993. "Forecasting the Swedish unemployment rate VAR vs. transfer function modelling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 61-76, April.
    36. Klaus, Joachim & Maußner, Alfred, 1988. "Regionale Arbeitsmarktanalysen mittels vergleichender Arbeitsmarktbilanzen," Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 21(1), pages 74-83.
    37. Jan G. de Gooijer & Rob J. Hyndman, 2005. "25 Years of IIF Time Series Forecasting: A Selective Review," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-068/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    38. repec:dgr:uvatin:20060020 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Roberto Patuelli & Aura Reggiani & Peter Nijkamp & Uwe Blien, 2006. "New Neural Network Methods for Forecasting Regional Employment: an Analysis of German Labour Markets," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 7-30.
    40. Matias Mayor & Ana Jesus Lopez & Rigoberto Perez, 2007. "Forecasting Regional Employment with Shift-Share and ARIMA Modelling," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 543-551.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Matthes, Britta & Burkert, Carola & Biersack, Wolfgang, 2008. "Berufssegmente: Eine empirisch fundierte Neuabgrenzung vergleichbarer beruflicher Einheiten," IAB Discussion Paper 200835, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Caliendo, Marco & Künn, Steffen, 2011. "Start-up subsidies for the unemployed: Long-term evidence and effect heterogeneity," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, pages 311-331.
    3. Büttner, Thomas & Rässler, Susanne, 2008. "Multiple imputation of right-censored wages in the German IAB Employment Sample considering heteroscedasticity," IAB Discussion Paper 200844, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Pavel Stafek & Petra Sanova & Zuzana Novotna & Adriana Laputkova, 2016. "Effectiveness of Retraining as an Instrument for Solving the Problem of Structural Unemployment in the Czech Republic," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 926-932.
    5. Kirchner, Stefan & Oppen, Maria & Bellmann, Lutz, 2008. "Zur gesellschaftlichen Einbettung von Organisationswandel : Einführungsdynamik dezentraler Organisationsstrukturen," IAB Discussion Paper 200837, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    6. Reinhard Hujer, 2011. "Mikroökonometrie und Kausalität: Zur Bedeutung arbeitsmarktpolitischer Evaluationsstudien," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 5(1), pages 5-18, March.
    7. Bruckmeier, Kerstin & Graf, Tobias & Rudolph, Helmut, 2008. "Working poor: Arm oder bedürftig? : eine Analyse zur Erwerbstätigkeit in der SGB-II-Grundsicherung mit Verwaltungsdaten," IAB Discussion Paper 200834, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

    More about this item

    Keywords

    arbeitsmarktpolitische Maßnahme - Erfolgskontrolle; Weiterbildung; Trainingsmaßnahme; Arbeitsbeschaffungsmaßnahme; Umschulung; Arbeitsmarktchancen; Teilnehmer; Beschäftigungsdauer; arbeitsmarktpolitische Maßnahme - Dauer;

    JEL classification:

    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:200829. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (IAB, Geschäftsbereich Dokumentation und Bibliothek). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/iabbbde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.