Recurrent Support Vector Regression for a Nonlinear ARMA Model with Applications to Forecasting Financial Returns
Motivated by the recurrent Neural Networks, this paper proposes a recurrent Support Vector Regression (SVR) procedure to forecast nonlinear ARMA model based simulated data and real data of financial returns. The forecasting ability of the recurrent SVR is compared with three competing methods, MLE, recurrent MLP and feedforward SVR. Theoretically, MLE and MLP only focus on fit in-sample, but SVR considers both fit and forecast out-of-sample which endows SVR with an excellent forecasting ability. This is confirmed by the evidence from the simulated and real data based on two forecasting accuracy evaluation metrics (NSME and sign). That is, for one-step-ahead forecasting, the recurrent SVR is consistently better than the MLE and the recurrent MLP in forecasting both the magnitude and turning points, and really improves the forecasting performance as opposed to the usual feedforward SVR.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lee, Tian-Shyug & Chiu, Chih-Chou & Chou, Yu-Chao & Lu, Chi-Jie, 2006. "Mining the customer credit using classification and regression tree and multivariate adaptive regression splines," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 1113-1130, February.
- Lisi, Francesco & Schiavo, Rosa A., 1999. "A comparison between neural networks and chaotic models for exchange rate prediction," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 87-102, March.
- Gaudart, Jean & Giusiano, Bernard & Huiart, Laetitia, 2004. "Comparison of the performance of multi-layer perceptron and linear regression for epidemiological data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 547-570, January.
- Tian, Jilei & Juhola, Martti & Gronfors, Tapio, 1997. "AR parameter estimation by a feedback neural network," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 17-24, July.
- Nikolaus Hautsch & Vahidin Jeleskovic, 2008. "Modelling High-Frequency Volatility and Liquidity Using Multiplicative Error Models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-047, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Kuan, Chung-Ming & Liu, Tung, 1995. "Forecasting Exchange Rates Using Feedforward and Recurrent Neural Networks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 347-64, Oct.-Dec..
- Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, G., 1990.
"The Statistical And Economic Significance Of The Predictability Of Exess Returns On Common Stocks,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9022, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A.G., 1990. "The Statistical And Economic Significance Of The Predictability Of Excess Returns On Common Stocks," Papers 26, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
- Evgeniou, Theodoros & Poggio, Tomaso & Pontil, Massimiliano & Verri, Alessandro, 2002. "Regularization and statistical learning theory for data analysis," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 421-432, February.
- Wolfgang Härdle & Rouslan A. Moro & Dorothea Schäfer, 2005. "Predicting Bankruptcy with Support Vector Machines," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-009, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Angelos Kanas, 2003. "Non-linear forecasts of stock returns," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 299-315.
- Nag, Ashok K & Mitra, Amit, 2002. "Forecasting Daily Foreign Exchange Rates Using Genetically Optimized Neural Networks," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(7), pages 501-11, November.
- Wolfgang Härdle & Rouslan Moro & Dorothea Schäfer, 2006. "Graphical Data Representation in Bankruptcy Analysis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-015, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-051. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RDC-Team)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.