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Estimating the Swedish and Norwegian international tourism demand using (ISUR) technique

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Abstract

This paper estimates the demand for tourism to Sweden and Norway for five countries: Denmark, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Japan, and the United States. For each visiting country, and for Sweden and Norway, we specify separate equations by including relative information. We then estimate these equations using Zellner’s Iterative Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (ISUR). The benefit of this model is that the ISUR estimators utilize the information present in the error correlation of the cross regressions (or equations) and hence are more efficient than single equation estimation methods such as ordinary least squares. Monthly time series data from 1993:01 to 2006:12 are used. The results show that the consumer price index, some lagged dependent variables, and several monthly dummies(representing seasonal effects) have a significant impact on the number of visitors to the SW6 region in Sweden and Tröndelag in Norway. We also find that, in at least some cases, relative prices and exchange rates have a significant effect on international tourism demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Salman, A. Khalik & Arnesson, Leif & Sörensson, Anna & Shukur, Ghazi, 2009. "Estimating the Swedish and Norwegian international tourism demand using (ISUR) technique," CAFO Working Papers 2009:12, Linnaeus University, Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Business and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:vxcafo:2009_012
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    1. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    2. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-1310, November.
    3. Ghazi Shukur, 2002. "Dynamic specification and misspecification in systems of demand equations: a testing strategy for model selection," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6), pages 709-725.
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    1. Fontini, Fulvio & Umgiesser, Georg & Vergano, Lucia, 2010. "The role of ambiguity in the evaluation of the net benefits of the MOSE system in the Venice lagoon," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 1964-1972, August.
    2. Bouzahzah, Mohamed & El Menyari, Younesse, 2012. "Les déterminants de la demande touristique: le cas du Maroc [Determinants of tourism demand: the case of Morocco]," MPRA Paper 39029, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 May 2012.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tourism demand; Significant factors; Iterative Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (ISUR);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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