Economic Growth in the very Long Run. On the Multiple-Phase Interaction of Population, Technology, and Social Infrastructure
Economic growth in the very long run is described by a multiple-phase, dynamic process with potentially complex dynamics during transitions between regimes. Technology is assumed to rest on a managerial-administrative infrastructure which influences natality, mortality and the productivity of work. A given population adopts a temporarily efficient techno-infrastructure and determines the population of its heirs. Growth can occur within a regime by the reorganization of population into new groups. But this process cannot continue forever because of externalities. A way out exists in the adoption of an entirely new regime. Evolution is possible but the probability of escape from an old regime need not be unity. Fluctuations can occur with or without re-switching and under certain conditions a population can be trapped in a complex pattern of growth, fluctuation, re-switching and collapse. It is shown that realistic scenarios can be generated by the model. The paper concludes with a formal analysis of the possible events and the construction of probabilities that describe the chance that given phases will switch and that various kinds of qualitative histories can unfold.
|Date of creation:||Jun 1988|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +46 8 665 4500
Fax: +46 8 665 4599
Web page: http://www.ifn.se/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Goodwin, Richard, 1978. " Wicksell and the Malthusian Catastrophe," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 80(2), pages 190-98.
- Smith, Vernon L, 1975. "The Primitive Hunter Culture, Pleistocene Extinction, and the Rise of Agriculture," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-55, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:0193. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Elisabeth Gustafsson)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.