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Economic Growth in the very Long Run. On the Multiple-Phase Interaction of Population, Technology, and Social Infrastructure

Author

Listed:
  • Day, Richard H.

    (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN))

  • Walter, Jean-Luc

    (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN))

Abstract

Economic growth in the very long run is described by a multiple-phase, dynamic process with potentially complex dynamics during transitions between regimes. Technology is assumed to rest on a managerial-administrative infrastructure which influences natality, mortality and the productivity of work. A given population adopts a temporarily efficient techno-infrastructure and determines the population of its heirs. Growth can occur within a regime by the reorganization of population into new groups. But this process cannot continue forever because of externalities. A way out exists in the adoption of an entirely new regime. Evolution is possible but the probability of escape from an old regime need not be unity. Fluctuations can occur with or without re-switching and under certain conditions a population can be trapped in a complex pattern of growth, fluctuation, re-switching and collapse. It is shown that realistic scenarios can be generated by the model. The paper concludes with a formal analysis of the possible events and the construction of probabilities that describe the chance that given phases will switch and that various kinds of qualitative histories can unfold.

Suggested Citation

  • Day, Richard H. & Walter, Jean-Luc, 1988. "Economic Growth in the very Long Run. On the Multiple-Phase Interaction of Population, Technology, and Social Infrastructure," Working Paper Series 193, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:0193
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    2. Smith, Vernon L, 1975. "The Primitive Hunter Culture, Pleistocene Extinction, and the Rise of Agriculture," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-755, August.
    3. Richard H. Day, 1983. "The Emergence of Chaos from Classical Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(2), pages 201-213.
    4. repec:bla:scandj:v:80:y:1978:i:2:p:190-98 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Neoclassical Economics; Evolutionary Theory; decision methods; knowledge; resource allocation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B13 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - Neoclassical through 1925 (Austrian, Marshallian, Walrasian, Wicksellian)
    • B25 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Historical; Institutional; Evolutionary; Austrian; Stockholm School

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