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The Bright Side of Shiller-Swaps: A Solution to Inter-generational Risk-sharing


  • Carlsson, Evert

    () (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

  • Erlandzon, Karl

    () (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)


This paper investigates the diversification demand of an agent, who is faced with the alternative to swap aggregate labour-income risk for equity-exposure, through her individual account in a mandatory-pension scheme. The framework for the analysis is a life-cycle model of a borrowing-constrained individual´s consumption- and portfolio-choice in the presence of uncertain labour-income and realistically calibrated tax- and pension systems. Pension benefits stem from both defined benefit and notionally defined contributions part, the latter being indexed to stochastic aggregate labour-income. We show that agents, depending on age and swap premium, agents will be either buyers or sellers of such a swap, and that inter-generational risk sharing can therefore be achieved.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlsson, Evert & Erlandzon, Karl, 2006. "The Bright Side of Shiller-Swaps: A Solution to Inter-generational Risk-sharing," Working Papers in Economics 233, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 24 Oct 2006.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0233

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Campbell, John Y. & Nosbusch, Yves, 2007. "Intergenerational risksharing and equilibrium asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2251-2268, November.
    2. Schieber, Sylvester J & Shoven, John B, 1996. "Social Security Reform: Around the World in 80 Ways," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 373-377, May.
    3. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-1248, September.
    4. Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Social security," Handbook of Public Economics,in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324 Elsevier.
    5. Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Social Security and Individual Accounts as Elements of Overall Risk-Sharing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 343-347, May.
    6. Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Housing," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 535-567.
    7. John Y. Campbell, 2006. "Household Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1553-1604, August.
    8. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco & Francisco J. Gomes & Pascal J. Maenhout, 2001. "Investing Retirement Wealth: A Life-Cycle Model," NBER Chapters,in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 439-482 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2002. "The Equity Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 637-659, April.
    10. Christopher D. Carroll, 1997. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(1), pages 1-55.
    11. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
    12. Robert Shiller, 2005. "The Life-Cycle Personal Accounts Proposal for Social Security: An Evaluation," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2535, Yale School of Management.
    13. Carroll, Christopher D. & Samwick, Andrew A., 1997. "The nature of precautionary wealth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 41-71, September.
    14. James Claus, 2001. "Equity Premia as Low as Three Percent? Evidence from Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Domestic and International Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1629-1666, October.
    15. Edin, P.-A. & Fredriksson, P., 2000. "LINDA - Longitudinal INdividual DAta for Sweden," Papers 2000:19, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
    16. Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Consumption and Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 491-533.
    17. Carlsson, Evert & Erlandzon, Karl, 2005. "The Dark Side of Wage Indexed Pensions," Working Papers in Economics 178, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabay, Daniel & Grasselli, Martino, 2012. "Fair demographic risk sharing in defined contribution pension systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 657-669.

    More about this item


    Life-cycle; portfolio choice; pensions; Shiller-swap;

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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