Early-Career Temporary Agency Work and the Risk of Precariousness for Migrants’ Descendants

This paper investigates ethnic differentials in entry into temporary agency work (TAW) with a focus on precarious segments, low-wage TAW and longer-term, low-wage TAW, during the early careers of migrants’ descendants. Using linked longitudinal microdata from the Flemish Migration, Integration, and Activation (MIA) panel (2005–2016) and discrete-time hazard models, we analyze quarterly labor market transitions of recent graduates over a five-year period. The results reveal pronounced disparities: descendants of Maghreb and Turkish origin are considerably more likely than ancestral natives to enter TAW, with nearly half experiencing at least one spell within four years of graduation. Ethnic differentials are greatest for low-wage TAW, underscoring their overrepresentation in precarious employment. Differences for longer-term, low-wage TAW are smaller and less consistent. Stepwise regression models indicate that human capital explains most of the observed disparities, especially for Maghreb and Turkish descendants. Employment history further accounts for an important part of the remaining gap, particularly for Southern European descendants. We only find minor differences between the 1.5- and second generation migrants’ descendants. The contributions of this study are threefold: (i) it provides one of the first empirical assessments of differential entry into (precarious) TAW by migration background during early careers; (ii) it moves beyond treating TAW as a homogeneous category by analyzing different types of TAW spells, conditional on wage and spell-length, allowing for a more nuanced understanding of the ethnic differentiation of precariousness within TAW; and (iii) it explores how human capital and early employment history help account for these ethnic differentials, pointing to structural factors that underlie persistent labor market inequalities. With this study, we contributed to ongoing debates on whether TAW functions as a stepping stone or a trap by showing that migrants’ descendants face disproportionate exposure to its most precarious forms, which may reinforce early-career disadvantage despite offering labor market attachment. Strengthening school-to-work transitions, especially in relation to human capital, could help reduce early-career disadvantages for migrants’ descendants. Monitoring the use of TAW and supporting transitions into permanent employment may also help limit prolonged exposure to precarious jobs.