Uncertainty about long term climate targets: A real option approach to investment appraisal
This article analyses how investors cope with carbon price uncertainty on the long run. More precisely, we assume that climate targets are not well established, so decision makers do not know if climate policy will be highly or moderately restrictive. It means that the long run carbon price drift is uncertain. However, there is a progressive resolution of this uncertainty. A real option analysis is conducted, in the case of a Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) project appraisal. We show that this additional uncertainty decreases investment probability, but does not lead to a lag of investment, as generally assumed in real option literature.
|Date of creation:||29 Nov 2011|
|Note:||View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00829667|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
- Yang, Ming & Blyth, William & Bradley, Richard & Bunn, Derek & Clarke, Charlie & Wilson, Tom, 2008. "Evaluating the power investment options with uncertainty in climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1933-1950, July.
- Joseph E. Aldy & Alan J. Krupnick & Richard G. Newell & Ian W. H. Parry & William A. Pizer, 2010.
"Designing Climate Mitigation Policy,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 903-934, December.
- Aldy, Joseph E. & Krupnick, Alan J. & Newell, Richard G. & Parry, Ian W.H. & Pizer, William A., 2009. "Designing Climate Mitigation Policy," Discussion Papers dp-08-16, Resources For the Future.
- Joseph E. Aldy & Alan J. Krupnick & Richard G. Newell & Ian W.H. Parry & William A. Pizer, 2009. "Designing Climate Mitigation Policy," NBER Working Papers 15022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blyth, William & Bunn, Derek & Kettunen, Janne & Wilson, Tom, 2009. "Policy interactions, risk and price formation in carbon markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5192-5207, December. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00829667. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.