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Du risque à l'incertitude dans les modèles de décisions

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  • Claude Henry

    (CECO - Laboratoire d'économétrie de l'École polytechnique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

It is not common for a result in theory, expressed in mathematical terms, to bear upon economic analysis and its applications - specially in insurance and finance - as is the case with the von Neumann-Morgenstern model of decision - making under risk. However this model is dependent upon the existence of a probability distribution to describe the risk facing the decision-maker. In an increasing number of situations challenging the sustainability of development - consequences of climate change, public health issues, etc. - uncertainty doesn't boil down to risk, i.e. uncertainty may not be characterized with a probability distribution. However criteria have recently been found, that generalize the von Neumann-Morgenstern one, for an operational approach of decision-making under uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Claude Henry, 2005. "Du risque à l'incertitude dans les modèles de décisions," Working Papers hal-00242967, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00242967
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00242967v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christian Gollier, 2004. "The Economics of Risk and Time," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262572249, December.
    2. Gajdos, Thibault & Tallon, Jean-Marc & Vergnaud, Jean-Christophe, 2004. "Decision making with imprecise probabilistic information," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 647-681, September.
    3. Daniel Ellsberg, 1961. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 75(4), pages 643-669.
    4. Ghirardato, Paolo & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo, 2002. "Ambiguity from the Differential Viewpoint," Working Papers 1130, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
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