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Incertitude scientifique et décision publique : le recours au Principe de précaution

Author

Listed:
  • Tania BOUGLET

    (GEM, Insitut d’Etudes Politiques de Paris)

  • Thomas LANZI

    (ESC Lille, School of Management)

  • J.-C. VERGNAUD

    (EUREQua-CNRS, Université de Paris 1)

Abstract

Dans cet article, nous formalisons deux critères de décisions qui tentent de rendre compte de deux logiques différentes d'interprétation du Principe de précaution. Le premier critère correspond à la maximisation du minimum de l'espérance d'utilité alors que le second critère correspond à la minimisation du maximum de l'espérance de regret. Les deux critères de décisions sont appliqués à un problème économique où l'incertitude est mesurée par une famille de probabilités. Nous montrons qu'il existe un intervalle de probabilités sur lequel les choix relatifs aux deux critères divergent. Plus particulièrement, nous montrons que sur cet intervalle, le second critère à la différence du premier, conduit toujours à retenir la décision la plus précautionneuse, les décisions étant identiques sur les autres intervalles.

Suggested Citation

  • Tania BOUGLET & Thomas LANZI & J.-C. VERGNAUD, 2006. "Incertitude scientifique et décision publique : le recours au Principe de précaution," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 2006021, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvre:2006021
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    File URL: http://sites.uclouvain.be/econ/DP/REL/2006021.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claude Henry & Marc Henry, 2002. "Formalization and applications of the Precautionary Principle," Working Papers hal-00243001, HAL.
    2. Christian Gollier, 2001. "Should we beware of the Precautionary Principle?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 301-328, October.
    3. Gajdos, Thibault & Tallon, Jean-Marc & Vergnaud, Jean-Christophe, 2004. "Decision making with imprecise probabilistic information," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 647-681, September.
    4. Loomes, Graham & Sugden, Robert, 1982. "Regret Theory: An Alternative Theory of Rational Choice under Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 805-824, December.
    5. Gollier, Christian & Jullien, Bruno & Treich, Nicolas, 2000. "Scientific progress and irreversibility: an economic interpretation of the 'Precautionary Principle'," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 229-253, February.
    6. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
    7. Loomes, Graham & Sugden, Robert, 1987. "Some implications of a more general form of regret theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 270-287, April.
    8. Morgane Chevé & Ronan Congar, 2003. "La gestion des risques environnementaux en présence d'incertitudes et de controverses scientifiques. Une interprétation du principe de précaution," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(6), pages 1335-1352.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Décision publique; information; précaution;

    JEL classification:

    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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