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La pertinence des cash-flows d'exploitation et de l'information financière traditionnelle dans la prévision de la détresse financière des entreprises tunisiennes

Author

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  • Saoussen Boujelben

    (ISCAE de Tunis - ISCAE)

  • Fedhila Hassouna

    (ISCAE de Tunis - ISCAE)

Abstract

L'objectif de cet article est de valider la pertinence des cash-flows d'exploitation dans le domaine de prévision des difficultés financières. Il s'agit de vérifier si l'information renseignant sur les cash-flows d'exploitation prévoit mieux la cessation de paiement que l'information comptable basée sur les accruals. L'étude empirique ainsi menée sur 278 observations, a permis de se prononcer sur la supériorité des modèles LOGIT basés sur les cash-flows, par rapport à ceux basés sur l'information financière traditionnelle en terme de prévision de la cessation de paiement, et ce par la simple référence à leurs pouvoirs prédictifs. Toutefois, cette supériorité n'a été statistiquement validée par le test de Davidson & Mackinon (1981) que pour la prévision deux et trois ans à l'avance.

Suggested Citation

  • Saoussen Boujelben & Fedhila Hassouna, 2007. "La pertinence des cash-flows d'exploitation et de l'information financière traditionnelle dans la prévision de la détresse financière des entreprises tunisiennes," Post-Print halshs-00544881, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00544881
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00544881
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    4. Nelson, Karen K. & Barth, Mary E. & Cram, Donald, 2001. "Accruals and the Prediction of Future Cash Flows," Research Papers 1594r, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
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