IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-05539949.html

Quel a été l'impact de la crise de 2008 sur la défaillance des entreprises ?

Author

Listed:
  • Denis Fougère

    (OSC - Observatoire sociologique du changement (Sciences Po, CNRS) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LIEPP - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire d'évaluation des politiques publiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics, Banque de France, ENSAE-CREST, Institut Polytechnique de Paris)

  • Cécile Golfier

    (Banque de France)

  • Guillaume Horny

    (Banque de France)

  • Elisabeth Kremp

    (Banque de France, NBER - National Bureau of Economic Research [New York] - NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research)

Abstract

L'accélération des défaillances des entreprises résidant en France en 2008-2010 a été précédée par une augmentation des créations d'entreprises en 2003-2004. Par conséquent, identifier l'impact de la crise économique et financière de 2008 oblige à dissocier, parmi les défaillances de 2008-2010, celles qui résultent de la crise et celles qui découlent mécaniquement de la démographie des entreprises, puisqu'on sait que beaucoup meurent durant leurs premières années d'existence. Cette étude est conduite à l'aide d'un échantillon d'entreprises créées entre le 1er janvier 2000 et le 31 décembre 2007, extrait de la base de données de la Direction des entreprises de la Banque de France. L'absence de données sur les entreprises créées avant 2000 conduit à se limiter à des entreprises encore jeunes, mais la période couverte est assez longue pour encadrer la période 2003-2004 d'accélération des créations d'entreprises. L'originalité de cette étude réside à la fois dans la taille de l'échantillon et la richesse des données utilisées. L'analyse statistique porte sur la durée séparant la date de création de l'entreprise de la date de sa première défaillance. L'impact de la crise est estimé à l'aide d'un modèle de durée flexible, stratifié selon la date de création de l'entreprise. Ce modèle tient compte des effets de l'âge de l'entreprise, de son secteur d'activité, de sa taille ou encore de la chronique de ses incidents de paiement sur effets de commerce. On examine plus particulièrement les taux de défaillance dans quatre secteurs d'activité : le commerce de détail, les transports, l'industrie et la construction. La proportion de défaillances imputables à la crise varie fortement d'un secteur à l'autre. Toutes cohortes confondues, elle aurait été de 27 % dans le commerce de détail, 35 % dans les transports, 43 % dans l'industrie et 46 % dans la construction. En particulier, les entreprises les plus jeunes, créées en 2006 et 2007, ont été les plus fragilisées par la crise

Suggested Citation

  • Denis Fougère & Cécile Golfier & Guillaume Horny & Elisabeth Kremp, 2013. "Quel a été l'impact de la crise de 2008 sur la défaillance des entreprises ?," Post-Print hal-05539949, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05539949
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://insee.hal.science/hal-05539949v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://insee.hal.science/hal-05539949v1/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. G. M.P. Swann, 2009. "The Economics of Innovation," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13211.
    2. Altman, Edward I. & Marco, Giancarlo & Varetto, Franco, 1994. "Corporate distress diagnosis: Comparisons using linear discriminant analysis and neural networks (the Italian experience)," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 505-529, May.
    3. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    4. Beaver, Wh, 1966. "Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure - Reply," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4, pages 123-127.
    5. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2007. "Corporate credit risk modeling and the macroeconomy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 845-868, March.
    6. Philippe Aghion & Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & Peter Howitt & Susanne Prantl, 2009. "The Effects of Entry on Incumbent Innovation and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 20-32, February.
    7. Beaver, Wh, 1966. "Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4, pages 71-111.
    8. Altman, Edward I. & Haldeman, Robert G. & Narayanan, P., 1977. "ZETATM analysis A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 29-54, June.
    9. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2003. "The Nonparametric Identification of Treatment Effects in Duration Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1491-1517, September.
    10. Rajshree Agarwal & David B. Audretsch, 2001. "Does Entry Size Matter? The Impact of the Life Cycle and Technology on Firm Survival," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 21-43, March.
    11. Audretsch, David B & Mahmood, Talat, 1995. "New Firm Survival: New Results Using a Hazard Function," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 97-103, February.
    12. Coad, Alex & Rao, Rekha, 2008. "Innovation and firm growth in high-tech sectors: A quantile regression approach," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 633-648, May.
    13. Audretsch, David B, 1991. "New-Firm Survival and the Technological Regime," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(3), pages 441-450, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Dominique Redor, 2017. "Do public subsidies have an impact on start-ups survival rates? An assessment for four cohorts of firms set up by previously unemployed entrepreneurs in France," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 493, pages 23-42.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Denis Fougère & Golfier, C. & Guillaume Horny & Elisabeth Kremp, 2013. "What has been the impact of the 2008 crisis on firms default? (in French)," Working papers 463, Banque de France.
    2. Juraini Zainol Abidin & Nur Adiana Hiau Abdullah & Karren Lee-Hwei Khaw, 2020. "Predicting SMEs Failure: Logistic Regression vs Artificial Neural Network Models," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 28(2), pages 29-41.
    3. Guidi, Francesco & Solomon, Edna & Trushin, Eshref & Ugur, Mehmet, 2015. "Inverted-U relationship between innovation and survival: Evidence from firm-level UK data," EconStor Preprints 110896, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. Christian Lohmann & Steffen Möllenhoff & Thorsten Ohliger, 2023. "Nonlinear relationships in bankruptcy prediction and their effect on the profitability of bankruptcy prediction models," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 93(9), pages 1661-1690, November.
    5. Sanchita Saha & Gagari Chakrabarti, 2025. "Impact of stock exchange listing on financial stability of small and medium enterprises: evidence from BSE SME platform in India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 45(2), pages 928-943.
    6. Fayçal Mraihi, 2016. "Distressed Company Prediction Using Logistic Regression: Tunisian’s Case," Quarterly Journal of Business Studies, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 2(1), pages 34-54.
    7. repec:ctc:sdimse:dime21_01 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Paulo V. Carvalho & José D. Curto & Rodrigo Primor, 2022. "Macroeconomic determinants of credit risk: Evidence from the Eurozone," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2054-2072, April.
    9. Stewart Jones, 2017. "Corporate bankruptcy prediction: a high dimensional analysis," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1366-1422, September.
    10. Catherine Refait-Alexandre, 2004. "A Review of Business Failure Prediction Based on Financial Analysis of the Firm [La prévision de la faillite fondée sur l'analyse financière de l'entreprise : un état des lieux]," Post-Print hal-01391654, HAL.
    11. Róbert Štefko & Jarmila Horváthová & Martina Mokrišová, 2020. "Bankruptcy Prediction with the Use of Data Envelopment Analysis: An Empirical Study of Slovak Businesses," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-15, September.
    12. Jagjeevan Kanoujiya & Shailesh Rastogi, 2024. "Nexus between efficiency and financial distress of listed firms in India: a comparative study using frontier techniques," OPSEARCH, Springer;Operational Research Society of India, vol. 61(2), pages 835-866, June.
    13. Umesh S. Mahtani, 2022. "Financial Distress Assessment Using Related Party Transactions," Indian Journal of Corporate Governance, , vol. 15(1), pages 5-25, June.
    14. Marco Vivarelli, 2012. "Entrepreneurship and Post-Entry Performance: the Microeconomic Evidence," DISCE - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali dises1286, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    15. Fayçal Mraihi & Inane Kanzari & Mohamed Tahar Rajhi, 2015. "Development of a Prediction Model of Failure in Tunisian Companies: Comparison between Logistic Regression and Support Vector Machines," International Journal of Empirical Finance, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 4(3), pages 184-205.
    16. Bhanu Pratap Singh & Alok Kumar Mishra, 2016. "Re-estimation and comparisons of alternative accounting based bankruptcy prediction models for Indian companies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 1-28, December.
    17. Fayçal Mraihi & Inane Kanzari, 2019. "Predicting financial distress of companies: Comparison between multivariate discriminant analysis and multilayer perceptron for Tunisian case," Working Papers 1328, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Aug 2019.
    18. Li, Chunyu & Lou, Chenxin & Luo, Dan & Xing, Kai, 2021. "Chinese corporate distress prediction using LASSO: The role of earnings management," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    19. Suzan Hol, 2006. "The influence of the business cycle on bankruptcy probability," Discussion Papers 466, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    20. Zhou, Fanyin & Fu, Lijun & Li, Zhiyong & Xu, Jiawei, 2022. "The recurrence of financial distress: A survival analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1100-1115.
    21. Modina, Michele & Pietrovito, Filomena & Gallucci, Carmen & Formisano, Vincenzo, 2023. "Predicting SMEs’ default risk: Evidence from bank-firm relationship data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 254-268.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05539949. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.