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Rating model for assessing the credit risk of SMEs in the construction sector in Morocco
[Modèle de rating pour l'évaluation du risque de crédit des PME du secteur BTP au Maroc]

Author

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  • Rachid Maghniwi

    (UM5 - Université mohamed 5, Rabat)

  • Mustapha Oukassi

    (UM5 - Université mohamed 5, Rabat)

Abstract

This study develops an innovative scoring model, the Z-BTP-Maroc, to assess credit risk among SMEs in Morocco's construction and public works sector. The model is constructed using multivariate discriminant analysis applied to a sample of 50 SMEs over the 2018-2021 period, using data from Bank Al-Maghrib's Central Balance Sheet Office and the High Commission for Planning. The Z-BTP-Maroc combines four financial ratios (indebtedness, profitability, working capital, accounts receivable turnover) and two macroeconomic indicators (construction sector growth rate and non-performing loan rate). The model achieves an accuracy of 80% at one year and 75% at two years. Its application reveals the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the sector, showing a deterioration in ratings during 2020 followed by improvement in 2021.

Suggested Citation

  • Rachid Maghniwi & Mustapha Oukassi, 2024. "Rating model for assessing the credit risk of SMEs in the construction sector in Morocco [Modèle de rating pour l'évaluation du risque de crédit des PME du secteur BTP au Maroc]," Post-Print hal-04791887, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04791887
    DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.14176674
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04791887v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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